Iraqi Use of Biological Weapons, [ (b)(2) ]
Filename:0161p6v.90d
[ (b)(2) ]
3 DEC 90 [ (b)(6) ]_
SUBJECT: Iraqi Use of Biological Weapons, [ (b)(2) ]
[ (b)(6) ]
A. What are the assessed delivery systems that would be used
for BW?
BW Delivery: Iraq is assessed to have weapons containing
the
biological agents anthrax and botulinum toxin. Weapon systems for
BW delivery are unconfirmed but could include cluster and aerial
bombs, spray tanks, artillery, or missiles. BW delivery could
also be accomplished by use of a truck, plane, helicopter, drone
or ship equipped with an aerosol generator to create a large toxic
cloud upwind of the target. Intelligence information presently
available does not allow confirmation of any weapon system for BW
delivery. Due to the lethality, persistence, and delayed effects
of BW agents, long range-weapon systems including aerial bombs and
missile warheads would be the preferred delivery means. Tactical
weapons such as rockets and artillery shells could be adapted for
BW, but such weapons would provide a less effective delivery
means.
Missile Warhead: Iraq probably intends to develop a
biological warhead for its Scud-type missiles, although
information is lacking about such efforts. Iraq has the necessary
technical expertise to put its biological agents into a missile
warhead. One warhead filled with anthrax spores could lethally
contaminate large areas for extended periods of time. Effective
dissemination
would not even be necessary if a BW warhead were to be used as a
terror weapon against civilian populations.
B. Under what circumstances will the Iraqis employ BW? When?
Where? What agents? Etc.
Tactical Employment: The use of BW as a tactical weapon
cannot be ruled out. Although some characteristics of BW agents
mitigate their effectiveness on the battlefield, they could serve
as a psychological weapon if employed against rear troop
concentrations. They could also be used as aerial denial weapons
against airfields or major supply centers.
The use of anthrax in a tactical battlefield situation is not
likely due to the delayed onset of symptoms: 1 to 6 days for
inhalation of anthrax spores. The first symptoms are
nonspecific--- fatigue and a mild fever, followed by a temporary
recovery and then reversal to sudden development of respiratory
distress. Death occurs within 24 hours after the onset of
the-second phase. Anthrax spores can live in the soil for
decades, thus this agent is an excellent long term area denial
weapon.
Botulinum toxin could be used as a tactical biological weapon
when a delayed effect is required: onset of symptoms is 6-12 hours
for inhalation of botulinia toxin. By the time botulinum toxin
symptoms develop---about 12 hours after aerosol
exposure---treatment has little chance of success. The agent'
affects the nervous system causing dizziness, dilated and
nonreactive pupils, progressive muscular weakness, and death.
- A major concern is the dissemination of botulinum toxin
on a dust composed of silica or other materials which may
penetrate clothing or masks and significantly increase the
possibility of exposure on the battlefield.
Strategic Employment: Iraq is more likely to use BW agents
strategically. BW could be used against civilian populations or as
an area denial weapon against oil fields or other industrial or
military targets. A strategic BW attack against civilian
population centers could result in large-scale fatalities and
casualties.
Terrorist Use: BW agents could also be delivered by
terrorist groups or by Iraqi clandestine services against military
or civilian targets. Botulinum toxin, and to a lesser degree,
anthrax bacteria lend themselves to covert dissemination because
even small amounts placed in water or food supplies are
sufficient to kill large numbers of people. Saboteurs could
contaminate or threaten to contaminate water or food supplies.
The difficulty in distinguishing between a naturally occurring
epidemic and covert dissemination could provide sufficient cover
for Iraq to use BW without suffering retaliation.
Other BW Agents: The Iraqis are likely investigating a
range of other toxins and live agents. They have shown an
interest in developing Clostridium perfringens, Staphylococcus
enterotoxin B (SEB), and mycotoxins, but information is lacking on
the status of the development of these agents.
C. What would be the aims of the use of BW. i.e. area denial,
force coalition to negotiations, retaliation, last act of
desperation, etc.?
Anthrax would make an excellent long-term area denial weapon
against oil fields or other strategic territory that Saddam might
choose to deny to his adversaries.
BW could be employed prior to the onset of hostilities as a
psychological weapon in an attempt to weaken resolve to fight an
enemy equipped and willing to use such a deplorable weapon.
Saddam could use BW in retaliation for an attack against
Iraq, or as a last act of desperation if he has no other
alternative short of surrender.
[ (b)(6) ]
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