Reply to questions
Filename:0142pgv.90d
[ (b)(2)] suspense: 27 Dec 90 1200
_
Subject: Reply to questions
A. What are the current confirmed, probable, and possible IZ
weapon systems that can carry biological agents?
B. What are the likely methods of delivery of biological agents?
Iraq posesses the biological warfare (BW) agents anthrax
and botulinum toxin, both of which are believed to weaponized.
The Iraqis are known to have acquired forty high capacity aerosol
generators in the Spring of 1990 which are suitable for
disseminating BW agents over large areas. Other BW munitions,
such as aerial bombs, cluster munitions, artillery, spray tanks,
and missile warheads, are within the techical capability of the
Iraqis, but here is no evidence that they have been developed. If
Iraq were to use artillery as a delivery means, the long range
l55-mm howitzers would be the most likely candidate. Smaller
munitions, such as helicopter launched rockets, present
technical difficulties and have limited effectiveness as a method
for delivery of biological agents. The most likely method of
delivery woold be with a relatively large missile warhead, aerial
bomb, or some type of aerosol dispenser. They have shown interest
in other biologically-derived toxins and infectious agents, but
the status of their development is not known.
The Iraqi BW agents have both tactical and non-tactical
utility. Biological-derived toxins, such as botulinun toxin, act
in about the same time as mustard gas and could be used in
tactical situations along the forward edge of the battle area.
Botulinum toxin has the added advantage of being relatively
non-parsistent (several hours) thereby allowing attacking troops
to occupy
terrain shortly after use. Artillery, aerial bombs, and spray
devices are suitable for delivering toxins. Toxins could also be
used by special forces or terrorists to attack selectively troop
concentrations to the rear, command centers, or civilian
populations. Infectious agents, such as anthrax, have more
utility against large area targets since the agents are more
resistant to environmental factors, Anthrax can cover very large
areas especially when disseminated by aerosol generators or aerial
spray devices. Cluster munitions and missile warheads can also be
used to disseminate BW agents. Anthrax can be used effectively by
special forces to contaminate larger targets, such as airfields
and oil fields. Terrorist use of anthrax in cities could result
in
ten-of-thousands of fatalities in unvaccinated/untreated people.
Anthrax begins to decay within hours in full sunlight but can
persist for months-to-years once it infiltrates soil or is
protected from environmental factors.
C. What are the anticipated effects of IZ chemical weapon
systems?
The questions which were asked require an examination of
a large number of variables, such as temperature, wind speed and
direction, amount of cloud cover, amount of agent on target,
persistence of agent, and lay down patterns for the projectiles.
Due to the large number of variables, there is no short answer.
The U.S. Army Chemical school has completed a study, "Persistency
of Chemical Warfare Agents at High Temperatures." This study
which runs some 400 pages has most of the vital information.
What is the likelihood of IZ use of chemical or biological
weapons by system, and under what circnmstances would they be
prone or encouraged to use these capabilities?
If war should break out, it could be that Saddam Husayn
will use all-forms of chemical combat-capability at his disposal
to preserve his .Iraq would consider using infectious
biological weapons as a retaliatory for unconventional
attacks on Iraq or as a weapon of last resort. Husayn would
likely use tactical chemical delivery systems from the outset to
inflict maximum casualties, demoralize MNF troops, and
complicate MNF operational
Use of chemical in a non-tactical mode, such as striking
population centers with SOUD type missiles, is also likely,
although this may not occur at the outset ofthe war.
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