Effect of Patriot Interception on SCUD Warhead Dissemination
Filename:092pgv.91p
[ (b)(2) ]
RESPOND TO ITF TASKERS 3657 AND TASKERS 3547
PASS TO ITF OPS OFFICER
23 JAN 91, 1115 HRS, SENT BY: [ (b)(6) ]
23 January 1991
Subject: Effect of Patriot Interception on SCUD Warhead
Dissemination
Reference: OICC Task 3647, What if a Patriot hits a SCUD with
1)Mustard 2) Most Persistent Nerve Agent 3) Anthrax-Range of
Options, Hit High/Low/Mid Altitude Range, due 01/23/91-0500; OICC
Task 3657, Biological Warfare (BW) Employment, due 01/23/91-1200.
Iraqi Chemical Delivery By Missile
Iraq is assessed to have a limited number of SCUD
warheads with chemical fills. The most likely chemical agents for
these warheads are the persistent blister agent mustard and the
semipersistent nerve agent GF. Both binary and unitary fill
architecture may be available. The most likely warhead
configuration for these munitions is a bulk fill, but it is
possible that Iraq has successfully incorporated submunitions
similar to those in cluster bombs into their SCUD chemical
warheads. The use of submunitions could further improve
dissemination efficiency.
Chemical Dissemination by SCUD Missile
Normal warhead function for a SCUD carrying chemicals is to
airburst at some altitude. The burst spreads the chemical agent
over a wide area. The Army Chemical Research Development and
Engineering Center (CRDEC) estimates a bulk filled SCUD can cover
an area of about 688 hectares to a contamination of 1.0 mg-
min/m3 when filled with mustard; a GF fill could reach the same
contamination level over 733 hectares. Both estimates are highly
dependent on weather conditions in the target area, and could vary
significantly.
It is important to note that the missiles which have
reached Tel Aviv and Riyadh contain significantly less payload
than the figures assumed to make these estimates of contamination.
The fill of the mustard-filled SCUD was 1311 pounds, while the
fill weight for GF was 1166 pounds. The extended range SCUDs could
carry only 100 to 400 pounds of agent. This will significantly
reduce the area of contamination.
The inclusion of submunitions could alter the probable
area of contamination. Submunitions can be disseminated over a
very wide area. The relatively hard submunitions can be forcefully
ejected from the warhead by a blast. Once released, they are
aerodynamically designed to land upright and dispense agent upon
impact. This can be a very good way to disseminate biological
agents as well.
There is no evidence to conclude that Iraq has a warhead
with chemical submunitions. No information on testing has been
obtained, and experimentation with bursts at relatively high
release points has not been seen. Nonetheless, Iraq does have
submunition technology and chemical agents and missiles. They
have the potential to make such a weapon, and could have done so
without our knowledge.
Biological Warheads
Iraq is assessed to have some type of biological delivery
capability. No details of the systems which Iraq would use to
deliver BW agents are known. Some of the possibilities for BW
delivery include cluster bombs, missile warheads and spray
systems. Based on available information, none of these systems can
be confirmed as containing BW agents.
Dissemination of BW agents from missiles could be an
effective way to deliver toxic agent. The missile would ideally be
detonated at a relatively high altitude, perhaps greater than 10
kilometers, releasing submunitions loaded with agent. Due to the
extreme virulence of the BW agents, these submunitions would
be spread over a very wide area, perhaps as large as hundreds of
square miles.
The technology of BW dissemination using a missile warhead
with submunitions is sophisticated, but within the capability of
Iraq. Therefore, use of BW through this dissemination system
cannot be ruled out. As noted above, Iraq has the agents, the
missiles and the submunition production technology to produce
these BW weapons. Their ability to effectively use them is
suspect.
Estimated Effects of Patriot Intercept
The result of a Patriot intercept on a chemical warhead
would be a much different event than an explosive detonation of a
warhead. Rather than being explosively ejected at the ideal
height, the agent will just drain out of the warhead. This will
reduce the area of contamination significantly. Also, since the
intercept will occur at an altitude in excess of the desired burst
height, the losses of agent to the atmosphere will increase and
further reduce the area of contamination. The impact of the
Patriot could also act to aerosolize some of the agent. (This
assumes the weapon would be set to burst lower than probable
Patriot intercept.) In no case would Patriot intercept be expected
to increase dissemination of agent.
The destruction of the agent by the Patriot system would
not mean the loss of agent toxicity. The Patriot wold not destroy
the chemical or biological agent, just make it more difficult to
reach the ground. Therefore, the Patriot will not completely
eliminate the potential of the Iraqi missiles to deliver
chemicals, but can greatly reduce their effect.
The effect of intercept altitude makes prediction of
expected contamination very difficult. If intercepted high enough,
the missile payload would be completely diluted by the atmosphere
without producing any contaminated area. Lower level intercepts
will result in a much smaller area of contamination than the
missile, but possibly with higher levels of contamination.
POC is [ (b)(6) ]
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