Iraqi Defense Industry and Rearmament Objectives
Filename:057pgv.91p
[ (b)(2) ][ (b)(6) ]
Subject: Iraqi Defense Industry and Rearmament Objectives
Summary: In the aftermath of the war, Baghdad will place a high
priority on the restoration of its armed forces and its military
industrial base. Its nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC)
warfare facilities and ballistic missile weapons capabilities are
unlikely to survive the war intact. The scope and pace of the
Iraqi rearmament campaign will depend on the magnitude of combat
losses and the resulting size of surviving forces, the nature of
the postwar government, the extent of outside assistance;_and the
level of oil revenues.
Defense Industry won't Survive the war
[ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ] Iraq's ability to produce NBC weapons
will be largely negated by the end of the war, as will its
ballistic missile production capability. The only surviving
military industrial facilities probably will be capable only of
the manufacture of small arms and small caliber ammunition.
Initial Emphasis on Rebuilding Military and Industrial Capacity
Following the resolution of the current crisis, the top priority
for Baghdad will be the rearmament of its military, sufficient to
make a credible defense of its territory, and the reestablishment
of its military industrial base. Iraq's ultimate objective will
be to reconstruct a military force, including weapons of mass
destruction, consonant with its ambitions for regional dominance.
Baghdad will probably turn first to its traditional arms
suppliers: [ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ]. However, [ (b)(1) sec
1.3(a)(4) ] with more advanced equipment might hesitate to sell
to Iraq and Baghdad may have to settle for less capable equipment
[ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ].
[ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ]
If the Iraqis should choose to rebuild a chemical and biological
weapon or missile production capability, and could successfully
circumvent sanctions, production could begin in 5-10 years.
Manufacture of a nuclear weapon would not be likely before the
year 2000. Given economic constraints, it will take more than a
decade for the arms industry to reemerge.
[ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ]
Iraq's nuclear, biological, chemical (NBC) and missile weapons
production capability should be largely eliminated by the end of
the war. Post war priorities will be rearming the military and
rebuilding the military production infrastructure. The extent of
the rearmament effort will depend on combat losses, the nature of
the Iraqi regime, and whether international military sanctions
will remain in place.
In addition, Baghdad will probably try to reestablish contacts
with business partners who had been helping Iraq set-up its
industry prior to the war. In addition, the civilian sector will
require significant investment amounting to tens of billions of
dollars. Even if the military sector is given priority, the
rearmament program will be delayed by a lack of funds and
competing civilian
needs
[ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ]
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