[ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ]
Filename:0129pgv.91
11JAN91 18lOHRS [ (b)(2) ]
SUBJECT: [ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ]
VP Task Force proposes the following for release
Ref subject tasker, para. A. 1 and 2.:
Please confirm or deny a 2 Oct 199O Egyptian newspaper report
that the Iraqis conducted chemical and/or biological warfare
experiments on Iranian POWs.
DIA is not familiar with the Egyptian newspaper
report. There is no information to confirm or deny that Iraq
conducted chemical and/or biological warfare experiments on
Iranian POWs.
What is the DIA assessment on the possible use of biological
agents such as anthrax in a Gulf war. What would the dispersal
means be and in which profiles would they be used?
BW Delivery Means: Iraq is assessed to have weapons
containing the biological agents anthrax and botulinum toxin.
weapon systems for BW delivery are unconfirmed but could include
cluster and aerial bombs, spray tanks, artillery, or missiles. BW
delivery could also be accomplished by use of a truck, plane,
helicopter, drone or ship equipped with an aerosol generator to
create a large toxic cloud upwind of the target. Iraq has the
technical expertise to develop a biological warhead for its
SCUD-type missiles, although information is lacking about such
efforts. One warhead filled with anthrax spores could lethally
contaminate large areas for extended periods of time.
Tactical Employment: The use of BW as a tactical
weapon cannot be ruled out. Although some characteristics of BW
agents mitigate their effectiveness on the battlefield, [ (b)(1)
sec 1.3(a)(2) ] a tactical situation is not likely due to the
delayed onset of symptoms: l to 6 days for inhalation of anthrax
spores. Anthrax spores can live in the soil for decades, thus
this agent could be an excellent long term area denial weapon.
Botulinum toxin could be used as a tactical weapon when a delayed
effect is
required: onset of symptoms is 6-12 hours for inhalation of
botulinum toxin.
Strategic Employment: Iraq is more likely to use BW
agents strategically. BW could be used against civilian
populations or as an area denial weapon against oil fields or
other industrial or military targets. A strategic BW attack
against civilian population centers could result in large-scale
fatalities and casualties. Anthrax would make an excellent
long-term area
denial weapon against territory that Saddam might choose to deny
to his adversaries.
Terriorist Use: BW agents could also be delivered by
terrorist groups or by Iraqi clandestine services against military
or civilian targets. Botulinum toxin, and to a lesser degree,
anthrax bacteria lend themselves to covert dissemination because
even small amounts placed in water or food supplies are sufficient
to kill large numbers of people. Saboteurs could contaminate or
threaten to contaminate water or food supplies. The difficulty in
distinguishing between a naturally occurring epidemic and covert
dissemination could provide sufficient cover for Iraq to use BW
without suffers retaliation.
Other Scenarios: Biological weapons are generally
considered to be weapons of last resort. However, Husayn could
order their use prior to the onset of hostilities in an attempt to
weaken the resolve of his enemies. Husayn could use Bin in
retaliation for an attack against Iraq, or as a last act of
desperation if he has no other alternative short of surrender.
DIA has no information on how Iraq may plan to use its biological
inventory.
Ref Para. B. l., 2., and 3.:
DI-6B: Responses to these questions were provided
verbally by DIA on 8 January [ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ]
Ref Para. C.1.:
We have no information related to referenced report.
Ref Para. C.2.:
We cannot confirm at this time that the Iraqis are
reinforcing their forces on the Turkish border. However, there
has been a recent increase in reporting, not yet substantiated,
that the Iraqis have deployed additional field
artillery and ADA to the northern frontier. Recent departures of
units along the Turkish border include the 39th Infantry Division,
which is assessed to be in the KTO, and the 11th Mechanized
Infantry Brigade of the 4th Infantry Division, which may also be
in the KTO.
Ref Para. C.3.:
[ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ]
[ (b)(1) sec 1.3(a)(4) ]
[ (b)(6) ]
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