File: 970613_72171801_d_txt_0001.txt
Page: 0001
Total Pages: 1
(b.2.) Sep 90 SUBJECT: IRAQI NUCLEAR CAPABILITY (b.2.) A. IRAQ DOES NOT CURRENTLY HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO CONSTRUCT A NUCLEAR WEAPON. THE CURRENT ESTIMATE IS THEY COULD DEVELOP A WARHEAD DURING THE LATE 1990S. THEY DO NOT HAVE A SOURCE OF READILY AVAILABLE FISSILE MATERIAL. THE FISSILE MATERIAL WHICH IS AVAILABLE IS REACTOR FUEL CONTAINING ABOUT 12.5 KG HEU: IT WAS PROVIDED BY (b.1. sec. 1.5.c.) IT IS NOT BELIEVED THE IRAQIS WOULD RISK USING ANY OF THAT MATERIAL. THERE HAS BEEN NO UNUSUAL ACITIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOCATION OF THAT NUCLEAR FUEL. (DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY THREAT ASSESSMENT CONSIDERS ITS USE A NON-CREDIBLE SCENARIO). A METHOD OF DELIVERY CURRENTLY EXISTS. HOWEVER, REQUIRED PAYLOAD CAPABILITY WOULD DETERMINE THE ACTUAL DELIVERY SYSTEM. B. A RADIATION DISPERSAL DEVICE (RDD) COULD BE CONSTRUCTED, HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY OF THIS HAPPENING IS ASSESSED AS NEGLIGIBLE FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS: (1) THE MILITARY UTILITY OF SUCH A DEVICE WOULD BE VERY LOW. OTHER THAN DAMAGE CAUSED BY BLAST OR FRAGMENTS, EFFECTS OF AN RDD USING LOW-GRADE PRODUCTS WOULD BE MINIMAL AND EASILY COUNTERED BY PROTECTIVE EQUIPMENT. (2) THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF INTENT TO PRODUCE A DEVICE. RDD IS A TERRORIST WEAPON AND IRAQS MOTIVES ARE NOT THE SAME AS A TERRORIST. (3) PUBLIC REACTION AND POSSIBLE RETALIATION. C. b.1. sec. 1.5.b., c.) DEPENDING ON FACTORS SUCH AS THE ISOTOPE AND SHIELDING, THE DISTANCE COULD BE MUCH LESS. D. (U) THE DISPERSAL OF RADIOACTIVE MATERIAL ON FOREIGN SOIL IS THE RESPONSIBILITY OF THE HOST NATION. US ASSISTANCE COULD BE PROVIDED IF REQUESTED BY THE HOST NATION, THROUGH THE COGNIZANT FEDERAL AGENCY (DEPARTMENT OF STATE), TO THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF DEFENSE (ISA). APPROPRIATE MILITARY RESPONSE TEAMS COULD BE PROVIDED TO ASSIST IN THE RADIOLOGICAL EMERGENCY. (b.2.)
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