110296_cia_72268_72268_06.txt

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SUBJECT: DEVELOPING FORMIDABLE ARRAY OF ADVANCED WEAPONS
NOT FINALLY EVALUATED INTELLIGENCE
TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN
REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN
TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF
THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON
REQUEST.
IRAQ: DEVELOPING FORMIDABLE ARRAY OF ADVANCED WEAPONS
PRESIDENT SADDAM HUSAYN'S PUBLIC VOW THIS WEEK TO REPLY WITH ADVANCED WEAPONS TO 
ANY ATTACK ON AN ARAB NATION IS ONLY THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF RECENT REMINDERS THAT 
IRAQ IS WORKING TO DEVELOP AND PRODUCE CHEMICAL, BIOLOGICAL, AND APPARENTLY 
NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND THE MISSILES AND ADVANCED ARTILLERY TO DELIVER THEM. BAGHDAD 
IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE AN ALMOST COMPLETELY INDIGENOUS CW PRODUCTION CAPABILITY WITHIN 
TWO YEARS AND PROBABLY WILL BE FREE OF MOST FOREIGN ASSISTANCE IN ITS MISSILE AND 
BIOLOGICAL WARFARE PROGRAMS WITHIN ABOUT FIVE YEARS. SOME AREAS, SUCH AS MISSILE 
GUIDANCE AND CONTROL TECHNOLOGY: EQUIPMENT REPAIR OR REPLACEMENT; AND PROBABLY 
NUCLEAR WEAPONS DESIGN, DEVELOPMENT, AND PRODUCTION, WILL REQUIRE FOREIGN ASSIS-
TANCE FOR THE NEXT DECADE.
IRAQ CONTINUES TO GIVE HIGH PRIORITY TO PRODUCING BALLISTIC MISSILES. IN ADDITION TO 
MODIFYING SOVIET-SUPPLIED SCUD B'S. IRAQ HAS            OTHER MISSILES UNDER DEVELOPMENT.
IRAQ'S CW PRODUCTION CAPABILITY LARGEST IN THIRD WORLD            
IRAQ'S CW PROGRAM APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING ON INTEGRATING LEGITIMATE PESTICIDE PRO-
DUCTION ACTIVITES AND ON DEVELOPING NEW CW AGENTS, NEW METHODS FOR AGENT PRODUC-
TION, AND NEW WEAPONS SYSTEMS.             
IRAQ HAS THE MOST ADVANCED BIOLOGICAL WARFARE PROGRAM IN THE ARAB WORLD. IT HAS 
PROBABLY PRODUCED LARGE QUANTITIES OF BOTULINUM TOXIN AND ANTHRAX BACTERIA, AND 
PROBABLY IS DEVELOPING OTHER VIRUSES, TOXINS, AND LIVING ORGANISMS AS BW AGENTS. IT 
WILL ACHIEVE A LIMITED OPERATIONAL BW CAPABILITY THIS YEAR. ITS ARSENAL PROBABLY WILL 
CONSIST OF ARTILLERY AND AERIAL BOMBS; CLUSTER BOMBS ARE A POSSIBILITY.             
APPARENTLY PURSUING NUCLEAR WEAPONS
BAGHDAD'S RECENT ATTEMPT TO ACQUIRE COMPONENTS WELL SUITED FOR NUCLEAR WEAPONS 
APPLICATIONS IS ONLY PART OF EXTENSIVE EFFORTS TO PROCURE EQUIPMENT, MATERIALS, AND 
TECHNOLOGY THAT STRONGLY SUGGEST AN IRAQI WEAPONS PROGRAM EXISTS.            SADDAM 
HUSAYN'S SON-IN-LAW CONTROLS A SECRET NUCLEAR WEAPONS DEVELOPMENT EFFORT.              
IRAQ HAS THE TECHNICAL COMPETENCE TO DEVELOP A NUCLEAR WEAPON BY THE LATE 1990'S 
WITH THE AID OF CLANDESTINELY OBTAINED FOREIGN TECHNOLOGY OR ASSISTANCE.            
ADVANCES IN TACTICAL DEVELOPMENTS
IRAQ EVIDENTLY IS DEVELOPING A LARGE GUN THAT THEORETICALLY COULD FIRE SHELLS--POSSI-
BLY FILLED WITH CHEMICAL AGENTS--SEVERAL HUNDERED KILOMETERS.             
DEPENDENT ON FOREIGN ASSISTANCE
            FIRMS AND INDIVIDUALS HAVE SUPPLIED EQUIPMENT MATERIALS, FACILITIES, AND TECHNI-
CAL ASSISTANCE TO BAGHDAD'S MISSILE NUCLEAR, CHEMICAL, BIOLOGICAL, AND AWACS PRO-
GRAMS.            
END OF MESSAGE
1.5 (C)
72268-72268

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