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071596_cia_75636_75636_01.txt
Subject: EFFECT OF PATRIOT INTERCEPT
Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence
TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN
REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN
TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF
THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON
REQUEST.
EFFECT OF PATRIOT INTERCEPT OF IRAQI CW OR BW
MISSILE WARHEAD
THE US PATRIOT AIR DEFENSE MISSILE HAS APPARENTLY BEEN
ENGAGING IRAQI SCUD-TYPE MISSILES AT ALTITUDES          .
OF CONCERN IS THE PATRIOT'S ABILITY TO KILL CHEMICAL
WARHEADS. A PATRIOT INTERCEPT WOULD TYPICALLY RESULT EITHER
IN DETONATION OF THE INCOMING MISSILE WARHEAD OR IN NUMEROUS
HOLES IN THE WARHEAD AND MISSILE BODY. IN EITHER CASE, CW
OR BW AGENT CARRIED IN THE BALLISTIC MISSILE WOULD BE
RELEASED INTO THE ATMOSPHERE.
IF THE PATRIOT WERE TO INTERCEPT A CHEMICAL WARHEAD
UNDER THE ABOVE CONDITIONS, THERE COULD ONLY BE A
GROUND-LEVEL CW HAZARD IF THE WARHEAD WERE FILLED WITH A
PERSISTENT CHEMICAL AGENT. A NONPERSISTENT AGENT THAT WAS
DISSEMINATED          WOULD NOT REACH THE
GROUND.
WE ASSESS THAT THE IRAQIS WOULD MOST LIKELY FILL AN SRBM
WARHEAD WITH EITHER THE NONPERSISTENT NERVE AGENT SARIN OR
THE SEMIPERSISTENT NERVE AGENT GF. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE--BUT
LESS LIKELY AT THE CURRENT TIME--THAT THE IRAQIS COULD FILL
A MISSILE WARHEAD WITH THE NERVE AGENT
EITHER VX OR GF COULD CAUSE CASUALTIES IF INTERCEPTED AT
AN ALTITUDE          IF A CHEMICAL WARHEAD WERE INTERCEPTED
AT          THESE AGENTS WOULD LIKELY HAVE VERY MINIMAL OR NO
EFFECT AT GROUND LEVEL.
IF ONE OF THE INTERCEPTED SRBMs HAD A BW FILL,
CASUALTIES COULD RESULT
THE 350MM
PROJECTILE FOR THE SUPERGUN IS INTENDED FOR USE WITH BW
AGENTS.
BASED ON CALCULATIONS WE HAVE DONE FOR
IRAQ'S SCUD-TYPE MISSILES, WE ESTIMATE THAT THIS QUANTITY OF
ANTHRAX SPORES COULD, UNDER IDEAL CIRCUMSTANCES AND
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS, LETHALLV CONTAMINATE AN AREA OF
SEVERAL HUNDRED SQUARE KILOMETERS
75636-75636
1.5(c)
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