071596_cia_71990_71990_01.txt

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Subject: IRAQ AS A MILITARY ADVERSARY
Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence
TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN
REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN
TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF
THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON
REQUEST.
NOV 90
BODY:
SUBJECT: IRAQ AS A MILITARY ADVERSARY
IN THE EVENT OF WAR, SADDAM WOULD STRIVE TO
INCREASE THE COSTS TO THE COALITION THROUGH ATTACKS BY AIR,
MISSILES, OR SPECIAL FORCES ON TROOPS, SHIPPING, OR OIL FACILITIES
IN SAUDI ARABIA. THESE ATTACKS, WHICH COULD INCLUDE THE USE
CHEMICAL WEAPONS, PROBABLY WOULD OCCUR AT THE OUTSET OF CONFLICT.
IRAQ HAS A LARGE AND GROWING CAPABILITY TO UTILIZE WEAPONS OF
MASS DESTRUCTION--CHEMICAL, BIOLOGICAL, AND POTENTIALLY NUCLEAR
WEAPONS. CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS CAN BE DELIVERED BY
AIRCRAFT, ARTILLERY, AND PROBABLY SCUD MISSILES:
X--THE IRAQIS MAY BE PREPARED TO SUFFER SOME SETBACKS BEFORE
RESORTING TO CHEMICALS. HOWEVER, IRAQI TACTICAL USE OF CHEMICAL
WEAPONS IS VIRTUALLY CERTAIN IF IRAQ SUFFERS SERIOUS BATTLEFIELD
DEFEATS.
X--TO COMPEL THE COALITION TO CALL FOR A CEASE-FIRE, SADDAM
MIGHT EMPLOY A BIOLOGICAL AGENT SUCH AS ANTHRAX AGAINST A COALITION
MILITARY BASE OR A SAUDI OIL FACILITY.
X--THE IRAQI ARMED FORCES HAVE HAD EXTENSIVE EXPERIENCE IN THE
USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS AND SURFACE-TO-SURFACE MISSILES.
1.5(c)
71990-71990

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