071596_cia_68274_68274_01.txt

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Subject: PROSPECTS FOR SPECIAL WEAPONS
Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence
TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN
REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN
TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF
THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON
REQUEST.
DIRECTOR OF
CENTRAL
INTELLIGENCE
PROSPECTS FOR SPECIAL WEAPONS
PROLIFERATION AND CONTROL
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE
THIS NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE REPRESENTS
THE VIEWS OF THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
WITH THE ADVICE AND ASSISTANCE OF THE
US INTELIGENCE COMMUNITY.
DIRECTOR OF
CENTRAL
INTELLIGENCE
PROSPECTS FOR SPECIAL WEAPONS
PROLIFERATION AND CONTROL
INFORMATION AVAILABLE AS OF 31 MAY 1991 WAS USED
IN THE PREPARATION OF THIS NATIONEL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE.
THE FOLLOWING INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATIONS PARTICIPATED
IN THE PREPARATION OF THIS MEMORANDUM:
THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
THE DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
THE NATIONAL SECURITY AGENCY
THE BUREAU OF INTELLIGENCE AND RESEARCH,
DEPARTMENT OF STATE
OFFICE OF DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY FOR INTELLIGENCE,
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
ALSO PARTICIPATING:
THE DEPUTY CHIEF OF STAFF FOR INTELLIGENCE,
DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY
THE DIRECTOR OF NAVAL INTELLIGENCE,
DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY
THE ASSISTANT CHIEF OF STAFF, INTELLIGENCE,
DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE
THIS ESTIMATE WAS APPROVED FOR PUBLICATION BY
NATIONAL FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE BOARD.
IRAQ
COALITION AIR ATTACKS DAMAGED IRAQ'S NUCLEAR, CHEMI-
CAL, BIOLOGICAL, AND BALLISTIC MISSILE PRODUCTION FACILI-
TIES. BAGHDAD DOES, HOWEVER, RETAIN SOME SPECIAL
WEAPONS CAPABILITIES. IN ONE DECADE, IRAQ WAS ABLE TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVELOP MANY KEY ELEMENTS OF SPECIAL
WEAPONS PROGRAMS
NUCLEAR. BEFORE THE WAR. IRAQ HAD THE MOST ADVANCED
NUCLEAR PROGRAM AMONG THE ARAB STATES
MUCH OF IRAQ'S ENRICHMENT CAPABILITY ES
CAPED BOMB DAMAGE
CHEMICAL. BEFORE 1991, IRAQ HAD THE LARGEST CW
PROGRAM IN THE THIRD WORLD. IT WAS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING          BLISTER AND NAME AGENTS
SINCE FULL-SCALED PRODUCTION BEGAN IN 1983.
IRAN-IRAQ WAR, IRAQ HAS BEEN DEVELOPING MORE AD-
VANCED AGENTS-PARTICULARLY THE TIME AGENT VX-
AND HAS BEEN ACTIVELY ASSEMBLING AN INDIGENOUS PRE-
CURSOR PRODUCTION CAPABILITY. ALTHOUGH KNOWN CW
PRODUCTION FACILITIES WERE HEAVILY DAMAGED BY ALLIED
BOMBING, SIGNIFICANT STOCKS OF CW AGENTS AS WELL AS
PRODUCTION AND FILLING CAPABILITIES MOST LIKELY SUR-
VIVED.
BIOLOGICAL. WE BELIEVE IRAQ WEAPONIZED BW AGENTS,
INCLUDING BOTULINUM TOXIN AND ANTHRAX, AND DEVELOPED
OTHER BIOLOGICAL AGENTS.
SOME PRODUCTION CAPABILITY SURVIVED ALLIED
BOMBING
BALLISTIC MISSILES
IT HAD ACHIEVED THE CAPA-
BILITY TO PRODUCE MODIFIED SCUD-TYPE BALLISTIC MISSILES,
WARHEADS, AND LAUNCH-SUPPORT EQUIPMENT.
PRODUCTION FACILITIES WERE
HEAVILY DAMAGED DURING THE WAR
68274-68274
1.5(C)

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