070396_cia_73919_73919_01.txt

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Subject: SHELF LIFE OF IRAQ'S CW AGENTS
Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence
TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN
REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN
TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF
THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON
REQUEST.
20 FEBRUARY 1991
MEMORANDUM
SUBJECT: SHELF LIFE OF IRAQ'S CW AGENTS
1. CIA AND DIA AGREE THAT IRAQLS CURRENT STOCKS OF
MUSTARD ARE STABLE AND SHOULD REMAIN EFFECTIVE FOR SEVERAL
YEARS. ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT PROVIDE A BREAKDOWN OF THE CURRENT
INVENTORY, CIA ESTIMATES THAT THE STOCKPILE IS DIVIDED FAIRLY
EVENLY BETWEEN MUSTARD AND NERVE AGENTS
2. CIA AND DIA HAVE DIFFERENT ASSESSMENTS OF THE SHELF
LIFE OF IRAQ'S UNITARY NERVE AGENTS. BOTH AGENCIES AGREE THAT
IRAQ HAS ENCOUNTERED DIFFICULTY OVER THE PAST THREE YEARS WITH
THE SHELF LIFE OF ITS UNITARY NERVE AGENTS. DIA BELIEVES THAT
THE PROBLEM PERSISTS, THAT THE STOCKPILE OF NERVE AGENTS WILL
BE UNUSABLE BY LATE MARCH, AND THAT DAMAGE TO PRODUCTION
FACILITIES WILL FORCE THE IRAQIS TO RELY ON STOCKPILED AGENTS.
CIA BELIEVES THAT A SUBSTANTIAL SEGMENT OF IRAQ'S NERVE AGENT
STOCKPILE CONSISTS OF BINARY CHEMICAL WEAPONS--WHICH WOULD NOT
BE SUBJECT TO DEGRADATION. CIA ALSO BELIEVES THAT THE SHELF
LIFE PROBLEM WAS ONLY TEMPORARY AND THAT THE IRAQIS EVEN NOW
MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE UNITARY AGENTS OF SUFFICIENT QUALITY BY
ADDING A STABILIZER OR IMPROVING THEIR PRODUCTION PROCESS.
SUBJECT:  SHELF LIFE OF IRAQLS CW AGENTS
5. DIA BELIEVES IRAQ HAS HAD INSUFFICIENT TIME TO PRODUCE
LARGE AMOUNTS OF BINARY CW AGENTS.
MEMORANDUM
SUBJECT:  IRAQI CBW STOCKPILE
CHEMICAL WEAPONS:
THE STOCKPILE PROBABLY IS FAIRLY EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN BLISTER
AN NERVE AGENTS. THE MOST LIKELY AGENTS ARE THE BLISTER AGENT SULFUR MUSTARD AND 
THE NERVE AGENTS SARIN AND GF. WE ASSESS THAT MOST OF THE SARIN AND GF ARE
WEAPONIZE IN BINARY FORM AND DO NOT NOT SUFFER FROM THE LIMITED SHELF-LIFE
PROBLEM PREVALENT DURING THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR. IRAQ
PROBABLY ALSO HAS SMALL QUANTITIES OF THE ADVANCED NERVE AGENT VX, AND MAY HAVE 
LIMITED AMOUNTS OF OTHER AGENTS IN ITS STOCKPILE.
IRAQ MOST LIKELY HAS WEAPONIZED THESE AGENTS IN AERIAL BOMBS, MORTAR ROUNDS,
ARTILLERY SHELLS AND ROCKETS, AND MISSILE WARHEADS.
WE BELIEVE THAT BOMBS AND ARTILLERY MAKE UP THE BULK OF IRAQ'S CHEMICAL ARSENAL. TO
GIVE AN IDEA OF THE QUANTITIES OF MUNITIONS AVAILABLE, ONE TON OF AGENT WOULD BE 
ENOUGH TO FILL ROUGHLY TEN 500-KG BOMBS, 150 122-MM ARTILLERY ROCKETS,
OR 350 152-MM ARTILLERY SHELLS
BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS:
THIS QUANTITY OF AGENT WAS PRESENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
CONFLICT, AND MOST OF IT PROBABLY REMAINS INTACT. WE ASSESS THAT THE LARGE MAJORITY
OF IRAQ'S BW AGENTS ARE IN WEAPONS SUCH AS AERIAL BOMBS AND ARTILLERY, AND POSSIBLY
MISSILE WARHEADS. A SMALL QUANTITY OF AGENT WOULD LIKELY REMAIN IN BULK FOR
DISSEMINATION FROM SPRAY DEVICES
1.5 (c)
73919:73919

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