Subject: POSSIBLE IRAQI RADIOLOGICAL WEAP Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON REQUEST. THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20505 NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL JANUARY 1991 MEMORANDUM FOR: DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE FROM: NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE OFFICER FOR WARNING NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE OFFICER FOR SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND PROLIFERATION SUBJECT: POSSIBLE IRAQI RADIOLOGICAL WEAPONS 1. ACCORDING TO WESTERN PRESS REPORTS ON 14 JANUARY, IRAQ CLAIMS TO HAVE SECRET WEAPONS THAT WOULD CAUSE TENS OF THOUSANDS OF ITS FOES TO DIE BEFORE THEY COULD REACH IRAQI DEFENSES. THE IRAQI DEFENSE MINISTRY NEWSPAPER AL-QADISIYA ASSERTED THAT, "IRAQ'S ARSENAL CONTAINS SURPRISES WHICH WILL ASTONISH OUR ENEMIES AND FASCINATE OUR FRIENDS." OTHER PRESS REPORTS HAVE REFERRED TO "UNUSUAL" WEAPONS. 2. INTELLIGENCE AND IRAQ'S ACCESS TO RADIOACTIVE MATERIAL INDICATE IT WOULD BE FEASIBLE FOR THE IRAQIS TO BUILD A FUNCTIONING RADIOLOGICAL WEAPON. IRAQ DOES NOT POSSESS A NUCLEAR BOMB BUT THAT THE IRAQIS COULD HAVE OBTAINED RADIOACTIVE MATERIAL FROM OPERATION OF THEIR RESEARCH REACTORS AND MAY PLAN TO DISPERSE THIS MATERIAL USING A CONVENTIONAL EXPLOSIVE CHARGE. 4. SUCH AN IRAQI EXPLOSIVE RADIOLOGICAL DEVICE WOULD NOT BE A MILITARILY SIGNIFICANT WEAPON. IT WOULD CREATE NO SPECIAL BLAST EFFECT, AND IT COULD NOT CAUSE WIDESPREAD RADIATION SICKNESS. THAT WOULD BE TRUE EVEN IN THE WORST CASE, WHICH WOULD PROBABLY BE IF SUCH WEAPONS WERE USED AGAINST UNPREPARED AND UNPROTECTED CIVILIANS IN A CITY. 5. THERE WOULD, HOWEVER, BE A SUBSTANTIAL PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPACT, NOT ONLY ON THE TARGETS BUT ON THEIR LEADERS. IN THE FOG OF WAR, MOREOVER, THE RADIOACTIVITY CAUSED BY THE DETONATION OF A RADIOLOGICAL DEVICE COULD LEAD TO A CONCLUSION THAT IRAQ HAD USED A NUCLEAR DEVICE. THAT MIGHT TRIGGER ESCALATORY MOVES AMONG COALITION MEMBERS. 6. IF IRAQ HAS EXPLOSIVE RADIOLOGICAL DEVICES, WE BELIEVE SADDAM WOULD TRY TO USE THEM IN A WAY THAT WOULD MAXIMIZE THEIR POLITICAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPACT. ALTERNATIVELY, IN VIEW OF THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERREACTION, SADDAN MIGHT CONSIDER THEM TO BE WEAPONS OF LAST RESORT. 1.5 (C) 73887:73887First Page |Prev Page |Next Page |Src Image
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