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Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

070296_cia_73868_73868_01.txt
Subject: IRAQ BW CAPABILITY
Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence
TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN
REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN
TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF
THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON
REQUEST.
KEY JUDGMENTS
IRAQ HAS AN ADVANCED BIOLOGICAL WARFARE CAPABILITY AND WE
BELIEVE IT HAS DEVELOPED A DISSEMINATION CAPABILITY FOR ANTHRAX SPORES AND
BOTULINUM TOXIN, AND MAY HAVE OTHER BW AGENTS WHICH POSE A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT TO COALITION FORCES.
IRAQ'S EFFECTIVE USE OF BW AGENTS IS DEPENDENT UPON FAVORABLE
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND EFFICIENCY OF DISSEMINATION DEVICES.
THE RESILIENCY OF ANTHRAX SPORES AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
DISSEMINATION BY CONVENTIONAL HIGH EXPLOSIVES PRESENTS THE MOST SERIOUS
AGENT RELEASE PROBLEM.
UNDER EXTREME CIRCUMSTANCES SADDAM WOULD MOST LIKELY CHOOSE TO
USE MUNITIONS FILLED WITH ANTHRAX SPORES AS A STRATEGIC WEAPON AGAINST
CIVILIAN AND KEY MILITARY TARGETS. IN TACTICAL SITUATIONS, BOTULINUM TOXIN
WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY WEAPON.
SADDAM'S MOST LIKELY TARGETS FOR COVERTLY DISSEMINATING BW
AGENTS PREEMPTIVELY WOULD BE US COMMAND POSTS, AIRBASES, AND AIRCRAFT
CARRIERS, IN AN ATTEMPT TO NEGATE U.S. AIR SUPERIORITY.
THE ARRAY OF POTENTIAL IRAQI BW TARGETS POSE UNIQUE
OPERATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS SUCH AS PROXIMITY TO CIVILIAN POPULATION CENTERS.
AMBIENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS, STRUCTURAL CONFIGURATION, AND HARDNESS
OF THE TARGET.
DEFENSIVE MEASURES TO INCLUDE USE OF RESPIRATORY PROTECTION
DURING PERIODS OF VULNERABILITY, VACCINATION AND ANTIBIOTICS SHOULD BE
INSTITUTED IMMEDIATELY.
SECTION I. IRAQ'S BIOLOGICAL WARFARE PROGRAM:
SUMMARY. IRAQ HAS AN ADVANCED BIOLOGICAL WARFARE (BW)
PROGRAM AND HAS DEVELOPED AT LEAST TWO BW AGENTS:  ANTHRAX SPORES AND
BOTULINUM TOXIN. THE IRAQIS HAVE SHOWN INTEREST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF OTHER
INFECTIOUS AGENTS AND TOXINS,
IRAQ HAS THE TECHNICAL EXPERTISE AS WELL AS THE FACILITIES NECESSARY FOR
STORAGE AND PRODUCTION OF THESE QUANTITIES OF BW AGENTS.
A. PRODUCTION FACILITIES.
PRODUCTION OF ANTHRAX SPORES AND BOTULINUM TOXIN IS
BELIEVED TO HAVE BEEN ONGOING FOR AT LEAST TWO YEARS. WE HAVE IDENTIFIED
AT LEAST THREE PRODUCTION FACILITIES:
-          A CLOSTRIDIUM VACCINE PLANT IN ABU GHRAIB
IS THE LOCATION OF BOTULINUM TOXIN PRODUCTION.
-          A PLANT IN THE TAJI AREA IS THE LOCATION OF
BW AGENT PRODUCTION.          ONE
LOCATION OF ANTHRAX SPORE PRODUCTION.
- A HIGH-CONTAINMENT BUILDING AT SALMAN PAK CONDUCTS BW RESEARCH AND
DEVELOPMENT AND IS PROBABLY THE LOCATION OF BW AGENT PRODUCTION.
OTHER CANDIDATE BW PRODUCTION FACILITIES EXAMINED
INCLUDE THE INFANT FORMULA PLANT AT ABU GHRAIB, SAMARRA DRUG INDUSTRIES,
AND TUWAITHA NUCLEAR RESEARCH CENTER.
IF THESE MUNITIONS
ARE FILLED AND DEPLOYED, THEY MOST PROBABLY INCLUDE AIR-DELIVERED MUNITIONS,
ARTILLERY PROJECTILES, AND SPRAY/AEROSOL GENERATING DEVICES WITH BOTULINUM
TOXIN.
D. IRAQI INTENTIONS TO USE BW.
PAST IRAQI TACTICAL BATTLEFIELD USE OF
CHEMICAL WEAPONS--IRAQ WAS THE FIRST NATION TO USE NERVE AGENTS ON THE
BATTLEFIELD--AND STATEMENTS BY IRAQI OFFICIALS JUSTIFYING EMPLOYMENT OF ANY
WEAPON TO DEFEND THEIR COUNTRY SUGGEST THAT BAGHDAD WOULD CONSIDER USING
BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS UNDER CERTAIN EXTREME CIRCUMSTANCES. IRAQ'S LACK OF
EXPERIENCE IN USING BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS WOULD PROBABLY NOT PREVENT A DECISION
TO USE THEM.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHAT SADDAM WOULD DEEM
AN EXTREME CIRCUMSTANCE:  AN AIR STRIKE AGAINST THE PRESIDENTIAL PALACE,
HUGE NUMBERS OF CASUALTIES, OR COALITION FORCES ABOUT TO OVERWHELM HIS
REGIME. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES, WE BELIEVE THAT BAGHDAD WOULD MOST
LIKELY CHOOSE TO USE ANTHRAX-FILLED WEAPONS IN A STRATEGIC ROLE AGAINST
CIVILIAN AND MILITARY TARGETS. EXPLICIT THREATS OR THE ACTUAL EMPLOYMENT
OF BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS AGAINST CIVILIAN OR STRATEGIC MILITARY TARGETS MIGHT
BE USED TO SHOCK AND/OR TERRORIZE THE COALITION INTO PROVIDING AN OPENING
FOR A POLITICAL RESOLUTION.
WE BELIEVE IT LESS LIKELY THAT BAGHDAD WOULD USE
ANTHRAX IN TACTICAL SITUATIONS, BUT WE CANNOT DISCOUNT THIS POSSIBILITY.
IN SUCH SITUATION, BOTULINUM TOXIN WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY FILL CHOICE
BECAUSE IT MAY CAUSE EFFECTS WITHIN SEVERAL HOURS.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SADDAM WOULD COVERTLY
DISSEMINATE BW AGENTS PREEMPTIVELY. IN OUR JUDGMENT, SADDAM'S MOST LIKELY
TARGETS FOR SUCH A SCENARIO WOULD BE US COMMAND POSTS, AIRBASES, AND
AIRCRAFT CARRIERS, IN AN ATTEMPT TO NEGATE US AIR SUPERIORITY. IN ADDITION,
OTHER PRIME TARGETS COULD BE MAJOR LOGISTICS CENTERS, AND LARGE TROOP
CONCENTRATIONS.
SECTION II. IRAQI BW THREAT TO COALITION FORCES:
SUMMARY. USE OF BIOLOGICAL WARFARE (BW) AGENTS BY IRAQ
POSES A SERIOUS THREAT TO COALITION FORCES.
A.          USE OF ANTHRAX SPORES AS A BW WEAPON. WEAPONIZED
ANTHRAX SPORES CAN BE USED IN ANY NUMBER OF CIRCUMSTANCES. ITS
CHARACTERISTICS (I.E., ENVIRONMENTAL RESISTANCE, AEROSOL INFECTIVITY, AND
LETHALITY) MAKE IT PARTICULARLY SUITABLE FOR VARIETY OF ATTACK SCENARIOS.
LARGE AREA COVERAGE. ANTHRAX SPORES LEND THEMSELF TO
WIDE AREA COVERAGE,
          CIVILIAN POPULATIONS. CIVILIAN POPULATIONS WOULD BE
AT RISK TO ATTACKS BY WHATEVER MEANS THE IRAQIS CHOSE TO DISSEMINATE THE
ANTHRAX SPORES.
B.          USE OF BOTULINUM TOXIN AS A BW WEAPON. BOTULINUM
TOXIN IS SIMILAR TO CHEMICAL AGENTS IN THAT IT IS NON-LIVING AND HAS ITS
EFFECT WITHIN HOURS OF INHALATION. BATTLEFIELD USE WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR
IN TACTICAL SITUATIONS REQUIRING A NON-PERSISTENT AGENT.
1.5 ( C )
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