070296_cia_68170_68170_01.txt

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Subject: IRAQ SITUATION REPORT
Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence
TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN
REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN
TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF
THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON
REQUEST.
SPOT COMMENTARY
JANUARY 1991
IRAQ-KUWAIT:  SITUATION REPORT
BAGHDAD MAINTAINS CHEMICAL WARFARE OPTION
IRAQI          REFUSED TO RULE OUT
CHEMICAL ATTACKS WHILE SAYING THAT MISSILE STRIKES ON ISRAEL
WOULD CONTINUE;
COMMENT:  BAGHDAD HAS NOT CROSSED THE THRESHOLD FOR STRATEGIC
CHEMICAL WARFARE PROBABLY BECAUSE IT BELIEVES THAT CONVENTIONAL
MEANS TO PROVOKE ISRAELI RETALIATION AND TO INCITE POPULAR ARAB
VIOLENCE HAVE NOT BEEN EXHAUSTED. IRAQI MISSILE COMMANDERS
PROBABLY ARE ENCOURAGED THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THEIR LAUNCHERS IN
WESTERN IRAQ HAVE BEEN ABLE TO FIRE TWO WAVES OF ATTACKS DESPITE
COALITION AIR SUPREMACY. BAGHDAD PROBABLY HAS BEEN HESITANT TO
 USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS FOR FEAR OF RETALIATION IN KIND
OR OF HARSHER CONVENTIONAL ATTACKS BY THE COALITION.
SADDAM MAY ALSO BELIEVE THAT THE ESCALATORY OPTION WILL BE OF
GREATER VALUE LATER IN THE WAR WHEN HE HOPES HIGH COALITION
CASUALTIES FROM GROUND FIGHTING WILL MAKE THE THREAT OF CHEMICAL
WARFARE MORE EFFECTIVE IN ENDING THE WAR FAVORABLY.
WE CANNOT RULE OUT THAT IRAQ WILL ESCALATE TO STRATEGIC
CHEMICAL ATTACKS SOONER--PERHAPS EVEN DURING ITS NEXT STRIKE.
THE MISSILE STRIKES' RELATIVE INEFFECTIVENESS SO FAR,
1.5 (C)
68170-68170 

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