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Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

062096_cia_72206_72206_01.txt
Subject: IRAQ'S CW CAPABILITIES & INTENTI
Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence
TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN
REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN
TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF
THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON
REQUEST.
IRAQI CAPABILITIES AND INTENTIONS TO USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS
A CHRONOLOGY
DISCUSSION
WE HAVE LONG ARGUED THAT IRAQ WAS COMMITTING EXTENSIVE
RESOURCES TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CHEMICAL WEAPONS
CAPABILITY.
BAGHDAD'S SUCCESSFUL EMPLOYMENT OF CHEMICAL
WEAPONS AGAINST IRAN AND NOTED THAT IRAQ CONTINUED TO
ENLARGE AND ENHANCE ITS CHEMICAL WEAPONS ARSENAL.
CAPABILITIES
IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE INVASION OF KUWAIT, OUR
ANALYSIS ASSOCIATED IRAQI CHEMICAL WEAPONS WITH VARIOUS
DELIVERY SYSTEMS:
IN AN AUGUST          , WE JUDGED THAT IRAQ
"ALMOST CERTAINLY" HAS A LIMITED NUMBER OF CW
WARHEADS AVAILABLE FOR ITS SCUD MISSILES.
IRAQ ALSO HAD
A WIDE RANGE OF BATTLEFIELD-PROVEN DELIVERY OPTIONS,
INCLUDING BOMBS, SHELLS AND ARTILLERY ROCKETS.
SPECIAL FORCES OR OTHER AGENTS COULD
COVERTLY DELIVER CHEMICAL'WEAPONS TO SELECTED
TARGETS.
BETWEEN THEN AND JANUARY,          THE
POSSIBLE LOCATIONS OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS STOCKS.
IRAQI FORCES WERE STORING CHEMICAL
WEAPONS IN KUWAIT AND DISPERSING THEM IN LARGE
NUMBERS TO AIRFIELDS IN IRAQ.
IRAQ MIGHT BE STORING
CHEMICAL WEAPONS AT AN AMMUNITION STORAGE
FACILITY.
ACTIVITY
SUGGESTED THAT THE IRAQIS WERE
MOVING CHEMICAL WEAPONS FORWARD TO TACTICAL UNITS.
THE DEPLOYMENT OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS UNITS TO SEVERAL
FRONTLINE DIVISIONS IN KUWAIT. ARTILLERY UNITS THERE
WERE PREPARED TO LAUNCH CHEMICAL ATTACKS.
INTENTIONS
WE ASSESSED THAT CW WARHEADS ON
SCUDS WOULD ONLY BE USED AS A "LAST-DITCH EFFORT" TO BRING
ISRAEL INTO THE WAR.
THE VARYING CONDITIONS IN
WHICH SADDAM MIGHT BE WILLING TO USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS
AGAINST MEMBERS OF THE COALITION:
IN COMBAT          IRAQI FORCES
WOULD BE "VIRTUALLY CERTAIN" TO USE CHEMICAL
WEAPONS IF THEY WERE PUSHED BACK BY AN ALLIED
OFFENSIVE.
THERE WERE
"STRONG INDICATIONS" THAT IRAQ WAS PREPARED TO USE
CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN A POTENTIAL INVASION OF SAUDI
ARABIA, EVEN IF THE UNITED STATES OR OTHER COUNTRIES
INTERVENE.
THAT THOUGH IRAQ HAD PREPARED
ITS CHEMICAL WEAPONS FOR USE, IT WAS NOT NECESSARILY
COMMITTED TO USING THEM.
ON THE EVE OF THE WAR
SADDAM MIGHT USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN
"A VARIETY OF CIRCUMSTANCES" DURING THE INITIAL
48 HOURS OF A CONFLICT WITH THE ALLIES.
AS THE AIR WAR PROCEEDED, WE CONTINUED TO RAISE THE
POSSIBILITY OF CW STRIKES.
IN COMMENTING ON IRAQ'S FAILURE TO USE CHEMICAL
WEAPONS,
ASSESSED THAT THE STEADFASTNESS OF THE COALITION
MIGHT PERSUADE SADDAM THAT ESCALATION TO CHEMICAL
ATTACKS WAS NECESSARY.
JUDGED
THAT SADDAM "MIGHT" LAUNCH LIMITED CHEMICAL WEAPONS
ATTACKS AGAINST SAUDI ARABIA.
ON THE EVE OF THE GROUND WAR, WE CONTINUED TO BELIEVE
IRAQ WOULD RESORT TO CHEMICAL WEAPONS WHILE JUDGING THAT IT
WOULD PROBABLY BE INEFFECTIVE.
ARGUED IT WAS "LIKELY" THAT IRAQ WOULD USE CHEMICALS TO TRY
TO STOP ANY COALITION ATTACK THAT THREATENS TO OVERWHELM ITS
FORCES. AT THE SAME TIME, IT RAISED SEVERAL PROBLEMS THAT
WOULD COMPLICATE OR INHIBIT SUCH USE:
THE EXPIRATION DATE OF 70% OF ITS DECONTAMINATION
KITS HAD EXPIRED.
TROOPS HANDLING CHEMICAL WEAPONS HAD INSUFFICIENT
PROTECTIVE GEAR.
EFFECTIVE DELIVERY OF CHEMICALS BY AIRCRAFT SEEMED
UNLIKELY BECAUSE OF ALLIED AIR SUPERIORITY.
BAGHDAD'S LACK OF TACTICAL INTELLIGENCE AND THE HIGH
MOBILITY OF COALITION FORCES WOULD HAMPER ITS
ABILITY TO FIND TARGETS.
72206-72206
1.5 (C)
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