062096_cia_68957_68957_01.txt

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Subject: ASSESSMENT OF RADIONUCLIDE DEPOS
Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence
TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN
REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN
TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF
THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON
REQUEST.
PAGE 001
APR 91      CIA
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
COUNTRY: IRAQ
SUBJ:   ASSESSMENT OF RADIONUCLIDE DEPOSITION AT GROUND LEVEL
RESULTING FROM A HYPOTHETICAL BOMB ATTACK ON AN IRAQI
NUCLEAR REACTOR
SUMMARY:          ATMOSPHERIC SCIENTISTS HAVE CALCULATED THE DEPOSITION
AT GROUND LEVEL OF RADIONUCLIDES RESULTING FROM AN HYPOTHESIZED
EXPLOSION OF THE IRAQI NUCLEAR REACTOR ISIS. THE CALCULATIONS ASSUME
THAT A HIGH EXPLOSIVE BOMB MAKES A DIRECT HIT ON A FULLY-OPERATIONAL
REACTOR WORKING AT 100 PERCENT CAPACITY.
DISPERSION OF CONTAMINANTS,
TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT ACTUAL FORECAST METEOROLOGICAL DATA FOR THE PERSIAN GULF
REGION FOR THE TIME PERIOD          THE DEPOSITION OF
THE RADIONUCLIDES
COVERS A WIDE AREA IN IRAQ, TURKEY, SYRIA AND PORTIONS OF IRAN AND
KUWAIT.
2.          ATMOSPHERIC SCIENTISTS IN EARLY FEBRUARY 1991
CALCULATED THE DISPERSION EFFECTS AT GROUND LEVEL OVER THE PERSIAN
GULF REGION OF RADIONUCLIDES FROM AN HYPOTHESIZED EXPLOSION AT THE
IRAQI NUCLEAR REACTOR ISIS IN JANUARY 1991.
A SCENARIO IN WHICH A          HIGH
EXPLOSIVE (HE) BOMB MAKES A DIRECT VERTICAL HIT ON THE REACTOR.
THE REACTOR IS FULLY ON-LINE AND IS WORKING
AT FULL CAPACITY WHEN THE BOMB HITS.
5. AS AN EXAMPLE OF THE DISPERSION OF RADIONUCLIDES
ENCOMPASSES NORTHERNMOST IRAQ AND MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TURKEY, AS WELL AS A PART OF EASTERN SYRIA. BEYOND
THIS, PORTIONS OF TURKEY, SYRIA, IRAQ, AND NORTHWESTERN IRAN
WIND EFFECTS CAUSED A LEVEL
CONTAMINATION TO
LAP AT THE NORTHEAST BORDER OF KUWAIT AND TO COVER AN IMMENSELY
LARGER AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IRAQ THAN IN         PREVIOUS
SIMULATIONS.
END OF MESSAGE
1.5 (C)
68957-68957

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