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062096_cia_68737_68737_01.txt
Subject: MIDDLE EAST BRIEF
Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence
TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN
REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN
TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF
THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON
REQUEST.
PAGE 001
TOT:          AUG 90      CIA
BODY  SUBJECT:  MIDDLE EAST AREA BRIEF          FOR          AUGUST
1990.
CONTENTS
1. IRAQ-KUWAIT:  SITUATION REPORT
1. IRAQ-KUWAIT:  SITUATION REPORT
THE HARSH RHETORIC OF SADDAM HUSAYN MARKS AN EFFORT TO BROADEN
ARAB POPULAR SUPPORT FOR HIS POSITIONS; THE IRAQIS MAY HAVE DEPLOYED
SCUD MISSILES WITH CHEMICAL WARHEADS.
SADDAM'S SPEECH
SADDAM'S RHETORIC YESTERDAY WAS HIS MOST INFLAMMATORY SINCE THE
INVASION OF KUWAIT. HE ADVOCATED A MUSLIM HOLY WAR AGAINST US FORCES
IN SAUDI ARABIA AND WESTERN INTERESTS EVERYWHERE. SADDAM CALLED FOR
ALL ARABS TO REVOLT AGAINST THE US PRESENCE IN SAUDI ARABIA AND
"SAVE MECCA FROM OCCUPATION"--HIS FIRST DIRECT THREAT AGAINST
RIYADH.
COMMENT: SADDAM IS APPEALING TO PAN-ARAB SENTIMENTS AGAINST
FOREIGN INTERVENTION IN A BID TO BROADEN ARAB SUPPORT AT THE MASS
LEVEL AND TO DEFLECT CRITICISM OF THE INVASION. HIS SPEECH, WHICH
ECHOES THE ANTI-KUWAITI PROPAGANDA BEFORE THE INVASION, MAY SIGNAL
THE BEGINNING OF BAGHDAD'S EFFORTS TO CREATE A PRETEXT FOR INVADING
SAUDI ARABIA. THREATS BY IRAQI SUPPORTERS AGAINST US AND OTHER
WESTERN INTERESTS ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL RISE IN THE WAKE OF SADDAM'S
SPEECH.
MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS
REPUBLICAN GUARD TROOPS HAD BEEN TRAINING FOR THE INVASION OF KUWAIT
FOR TWO MONTHS. THE IRAQI TROOPS WERE TOLD THEIR TRAINING WAS TO
PREPARE FOR COUNTERING A POSSIBLE ISRAELI ATTACK.
COMMENT:
IT IS LIKELY THAT IRAO'S BALLISTIC MISSILES HAVE CHEMICAL
WARHEADS AVAILABLE AND THAT AT LEAST A FEW OF THOSE WEAPONS ARE NOW
DEPLOYED. BAGHDAD WOULD HAVE TO MOVE THE MISSILES INTO SOUTHEASTERN
IRAQ OR KUWAIT TO ATTACK TARGETS IN SAUDI ARABIA.
THE FIRST EVIDENCE OF
THE EXTENT OF IRAQI PRE-INVASION PREPARATIONS. IRAQI MILITARY
PLANNERS ATTRIBUTE MUCH OF THEIR SUCCESS IN THE LATE STAGES OF THE
IRAQ-IRAN WAR TO THOROUGH PLANNING.
DECONTAMINATION
EQUIPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SCUD IS NOT UNUSUAL, AS IT IS USED IN
THE EVENT OF A SPILL DURING THE LOADING OF THE VOLATILE PROPELLANT.
WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THE ACTIVITY OBSERVED IS RELATED TO THE
HANDLING OF CHEMICAL WARHEADS, IT IS JUST AS LIKELY AN INDICATOR OF
PROPELLANT HANDLING.
68737-68737
1.5 ( c)
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