062096_cia_68157_68157_01.txt

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Subject: MIDDLE EAST BRIEF
Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence
TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN
REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN
TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF
THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON
REQUEST.
SUBJECT:  MIDDLE EAST BRIEF          FEBRUARY 1991.
CONTENTS
5. IRAQ: SADDAM AND OPTIONS FOR SURPRISE
A SCUD MOBILE ERECTOR-LAUNCHER.
AND SEVERAL OTHER PIECES OF SUPPORT EQUIPMENT
IN A SMALL MILITARY INSTALLATION          OF AL QURNAH
COMMENT:  THIS INSTALLATION PROBABLY SERVES AS A SUPPORT BASE
FOR SCUD UNITS OPERATING IN THE AL QURNAH AREA. ALL SCUDS LAUNCHED
FROM THIS AREA DURING THE CONFLICT HAVE BEEN TARGETED AT DHAHRAN.
DAMAGE TO BW PLANT
A MAJOR PORTION OF A VACCINE PLANT
IN ABU GHURAYB, WEST OF BAGHDAD, HAS BEEN DESTROYED.
THE IRAQIS PROBABLY
HAVE USED THIS VACCINE PLANT TO PRODUCE THE BW AGENT BOTULINUM
TOXIN.
5. IRAQ: SADDAM AND OPTIONS FOR SUPRISE
THE IRAQI PRESS CLAIMS SADDAM STILL HAS SIGNIFICANT SURPRISES
IN STORE: THE FOLLOWING SUGGEST WHAT HE MIGHT DO.
SADDAM COULD TRY TO BRING TEL AVIV INTO THE CONFLICT BY USING
CHEMICAL WEAPONS. HE MAY BE RELUCTANT TO USE THEM. IN PART OUT OF
FEAR OF NUCLEAR RETALIATION. AND PROBABLY STILL HOPES A FEW MORE
ATTACKS WITH CONVENTIONALLY ARMED SCUDS WILL ACCOMPLISH THE
OBJECTIVE. SADDAM COULD ALSO TRY VIOLATING ISRAEL'S LONGSTANDING
TRIPWIRE BY MOVING AIR OR GROUND FORCES INTO JORDAN OR TRY MOVING A
SCUD LAUNCHER INTO JORDAN .
SADDAM ALMOST CERTAINLY ALSO HOPES TO BRING IRAN INTO THE
CONFLICT AGAINST THE COALITION. ISRAELI INTERVENTION IS THE EVENT
MOST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE THAT END. BUT TO ENSURE SUCCESS HE MIGHT
DAMAGE SHIA MUSLIM HOLY SITES AND BLAME COALITION AIR RAIDS.
TO RAISE THE COST OF THE WAR TO COALITION MEMBERS IMMEDIATELY,
IRAQ MIGHT TRY TO EXPAND THE GROUND WAR WITH LARGER ATTACKS.
POSSIBLY MULTIDIVISIONAL IN SIZE. OR USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS AGAINST
RIYADH OR DHAHRAN IN THE HOPE OF CAUSING PANIC IN SAUDI CITIES. HE
ALSO MIGHT INTENSIFY THE TERRORIST CAMPAIGN AGAINST US AND COALITION
ASSETS. OR TRY TO ASSASSINATE COALITION LEADERS, OR ATTACK TURKEY
FOR ITS SUPPORT TO THE COALITION.
SADDAM ALMOST CERTAINLY VALUES THE SURVIVAL OF HIS REGIME ABOVE
ALL: HE HAS NOT YET SEEN IT IN JEOPARDY. BUT IF HE DOES HE MIGHT
REQUEST A CEASE-FIRE IN PLACE. HE COULD CLAIM HIS WEEKS OF
RES ISTANCE AS A VICTORY FOR ALL ARABS AND THEN TRY TO PROLONG
WITHDRAWAL NEGOTIATIONS. ALTERNATIVELY, HE MIGHT ANNOUNCE OR CONDUCT
A PARTIAL WITHDRAWAL FROM KUWAIT. LEAVING THIRD-RATE UNITS TO
CONTINUE A GROUND CAMPAIGN FOR PROPAGANDA PURPOSES.
THE IRAOI PRESIDENT APPEARS LEAST LIKELY TO MAKE A SURPRISE
MOVE IN THE DIPLOMATIC ARENA. HE PROBABLY WILL NOT AGREE TO A
COMPLETE WITHDRAWAL FROM KUWAIT UNLESS HE SUFFERS A CATASTROPHIC
MILITARY LOSS. BAGHDAD ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL CONTINUE TO USE ITS
REMAINING DIPLOMATIC. BA'TH PARTY, AND OTHER PROPAGANDA ASSETS TO
ARGUE THAT COALITION FORLES ARE ATTACKING SHIA MUSLIM HOLY SITES,
KILLING CIVILIANS, AND TRYING TO DESTROY IRAQ. 
SADDAM WILL SEEK TO DRAW THE COALITION INTO A GROUND WAR AND
ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL CONTINUE TRYINC TO BRING IRAN AND ISRAEL INTO
THE CONFLICT. HE PROBABLY WILL VIEW THE WAR IN TERMS MORE POLITICAL
THAN MILITARY. HOWEVER, INSPIRED BY ANWAR EL SADAT. WHO POLITICALLY
"WON" THE 1973 ARAB-ISRAELI WAR DESPITE MILITARY DEFEAT.
IRAQ: REMOTE OPTIONS
ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY, SADDAM HUSAYN COULD PURSUE OPTIONS THAT WOULD
HAVE A TREMENDOUS IMPACT IF SUCCESSFUL. RUMORS ABOUND THAT HE MAY
HAVE SUCH DRAMATIC WEAPONS AS LARGE FUEL-AIR EXPLOSIVES, STOCKS OF
AMMONIUM NITRATE EXPLOSIVES. A FUNCTIONING SUPERGUN, OR SS-12
MISSILES. MEASURES WITHIN HIS CAPABILITIES INCLUDE:
--DEMONSTRATING NEW STRATEGIC WEAPONS. SADDAM HAS THREATENED TO
USE HIS ENTIRE ARSENAL AGAINST THE COALITION TO HIGHLIGHT THE COSTS
OF A WAR. HE HAS CLAIMED HIS MISSILES CAN CARRY CHEMICAL,
BIOLOGICAL, AND NUCLEAR WARHEADS. HE MAY TRY TO DEMONSTRATE
STRATEGIC WEAPONS, SUCH AS BIOLOGICAL AGENTS, TO CREATE A LARGE
EXPLOSION AND CLAIM IT WAS NUCLEAR. OR TO SAY HE HAS USED THE
FISSILE MATERIAL FROM TUWAITHA FOR A NUCLEAR WEAPON.
--FIRING MISSILES HE MIGHT HAVE POSITIONED IN SUDAN,
MAURITANIA, OR YEMEN AT COALITION MEMBERS.
--BLOCKING OR MINING A MARITIME CHOKEPOINT SUCH AS THE SUEZ
1.5(c)
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