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Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

061896_cia_68414_68414_01.txt
Subject: IRAQI CW AND BW
Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence
TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN
REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN
TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF
THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON
REQUEST.
AUG 90       CIA 230833
SUBJECT: IRAQ'S POTENTIAL FOR CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WARFARE
KEY JUDGMENTS
IRAQ HAS SUBSTANTIAL CHEMICAL WARFARE CAPABILITIES THAT, AS
DEMONSTATED IN THE WAR WITH IRAN, IT IS PREPARED TO USE. IRAQ ALSO
HAS SOME BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS BUT HAS NEVER USED THEM IN COMBAT.
IN COMBAT WITH US AND ALLIED FORCES
CHEMICAL WEAPONS:
X--THE EXTENSIVE EXPERIENCE IRAQI FORCES GAINED IN USING
CHEMICAL WEAPONS AGAINST IRAN WOULD BE APPLIED AGAINST US AND ALLIED
FORCES.
X--IRAQ'S FORCES WOULD BE VIRTUALLY CERTAIN TO USE CHEMICAL
WEAPONS IN ANY DEFENSIVE SITUATION IN IRAQ OR KUWAIT WHERE THEY WERE
BEING PUSHED BACK BY AN ALLIED OFFENSIVE.
X--THEY WOULD BE HIGHLY LIKELY TO USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS AS AN
INTEGRAL PART OF ANY OFFENSIVE INTO SAUDI ARABIA.
X--ONCE THE IRAQI FORCES HAD BEGUN USING CHEMICAL WEAPONS
AGAINST ALLIED FORCES, WE ANTICIPATE THEY WOULD BE WILLING TO USE
THEIR ENTIRE CHEMICAL ARSENAL, INCLUDING MISSILES WITH CHEMICAL
WARHEADS.
BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS:
X--BECAUSE IRAQ HAS NEVER USED BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS, WE HAVE
LITTLE TO GO ON REGARDING HOW OR WHETHER SADDAM WOULD USE THESE
WEAPONS AGAINST US AND ALLIED FORCES. HE PROBABLY CONSIDERS THEM TO
BE WEAPONS OF LAST RESORT, PERCEIVING A GREATER RISK OF
RETALIATION.
X--ALTHOUGH MORE TOXIC THAN CHEMICAL WEAPONS, BIOLOGICAL
WEAPONS HAVE LESS UTILITY ON THE BATTLEFIELD BECAUSE THEIR EFFECTS
DO NOT MATERIALIZE FOR DAYS. THUS, WE JUDGE IRAQ WOULD BE UNLIKELY
TO USE BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS AGAINST US OR ALLIED FORCES ON THE
BATTLEFIELD.
IN THE CURRENT, NONCOMBAT SITUATION:
X--THE IRAQIS ARE NOT LIKELY TO USE EITHER CHEMICAL OR
BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS OVERTLY.
X--IF THE TRADE EMBARGO BEGINS TO CAUSE MAJOR DISRUPTIONS,
HOWEVER, SADDAM CAN BE EXPECTED TO MAKE MORE OR LESS EXPLICIT
THREATS TO USE CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS TO RETALIATE AGAINST
THOSE RESPONSIBLE.
X--IF IRAQ'S CONDITION CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE, THE
POSSIBILITY THAT SADDAM WOULD ORDER COVERT CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL
WEAPON ATTACKS AGAINST US OR OTHER ALLIED TARGETS WOULD INCREASE.
X--SPECIAL FORCES OR OTHER AGENTS COULD COVERTLY DELIVER
CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS TO SELECTED TARGETS IN ALMOST ANY
COUNTRY.
LIKELIHOOD OF WARNING
SADDAM
HUSAYN, WHO PERSONALLY CONTROLS THE RELEASE OF BOTH KINDS OF
WEAPONS, WOULD USE SECURE MEANS TO ORDER THEIR USE.
END OF MESSAGE
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