Subject: IRAQI CW AND BW Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON REQUEST. AUG 90 CIA 230833 SUBJECT: IRAQ'S POTENTIAL FOR CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WARFARE KEY JUDGMENTS IRAQ HAS SUBSTANTIAL CHEMICAL WARFARE CAPABILITIES THAT, AS DEMONSTATED IN THE WAR WITH IRAN, IT IS PREPARED TO USE. IRAQ ALSO HAS SOME BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS BUT HAS NEVER USED THEM IN COMBAT. IN COMBAT WITH US AND ALLIED FORCES CHEMICAL WEAPONS: X--THE EXTENSIVE EXPERIENCE IRAQI FORCES GAINED IN USING CHEMICAL WEAPONS AGAINST IRAN WOULD BE APPLIED AGAINST US AND ALLIED FORCES. X--IRAQ'S FORCES WOULD BE VIRTUALLY CERTAIN TO USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN ANY DEFENSIVE SITUATION IN IRAQ OR KUWAIT WHERE THEY WERE BEING PUSHED BACK BY AN ALLIED OFFENSIVE. X--THEY WOULD BE HIGHLY LIKELY TO USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS AS AN INTEGRAL PART OF ANY OFFENSIVE INTO SAUDI ARABIA. X--ONCE THE IRAQI FORCES HAD BEGUN USING CHEMICAL WEAPONS AGAINST ALLIED FORCES, WE ANTICIPATE THEY WOULD BE WILLING TO USE THEIR ENTIRE CHEMICAL ARSENAL, INCLUDING MISSILES WITH CHEMICAL WARHEADS. BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS: X--BECAUSE IRAQ HAS NEVER USED BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS, WE HAVE LITTLE TO GO ON REGARDING HOW OR WHETHER SADDAM WOULD USE THESE WEAPONS AGAINST US AND ALLIED FORCES. HE PROBABLY CONSIDERS THEM TO BE WEAPONS OF LAST RESORT, PERCEIVING A GREATER RISK OF RETALIATION. X--ALTHOUGH MORE TOXIC THAN CHEMICAL WEAPONS, BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS HAVE LESS UTILITY ON THE BATTLEFIELD BECAUSE THEIR EFFECTS DO NOT MATERIALIZE FOR DAYS. THUS, WE JUDGE IRAQ WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO USE BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS AGAINST US OR ALLIED FORCES ON THE BATTLEFIELD. IN THE CURRENT, NONCOMBAT SITUATION: X--THE IRAQIS ARE NOT LIKELY TO USE EITHER CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS OVERTLY. X--IF THE TRADE EMBARGO BEGINS TO CAUSE MAJOR DISRUPTIONS, HOWEVER, SADDAM CAN BE EXPECTED TO MAKE MORE OR LESS EXPLICIT THREATS TO USE CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS TO RETALIATE AGAINST THOSE RESPONSIBLE. X--IF IRAQ'S CONDITION CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE, THE POSSIBILITY THAT SADDAM WOULD ORDER COVERT CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL WEAPON ATTACKS AGAINST US OR OTHER ALLIED TARGETS WOULD INCREASE. X--SPECIAL FORCES OR OTHER AGENTS COULD COVERTLY DELIVER CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS TO SELECTED TARGETS IN ALMOST ANY COUNTRY. LIKELIHOOD OF WARNING SADDAM HUSAYN, WHO PERSONALLY CONTROLS THE RELEASE OF BOTH KINDS OF WEAPONS, WOULD USE SECURE MEANS TO ORDER THEIR USE. END OF MESSAGE 1.5 (c) 68414:68414First Page |Prev Page |Next Page |Src Image
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