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cia_65279_65279_01.txt
Subject: IRAQI SPECIAL WEAPONS
Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence
TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN
REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN
TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF
THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON
REQUEST.
FEB 91   DIRECTOR 492438
SUBJECT: EVALUATION OF IRAQI SPECIAL WEAPONS CAPABILITIES
1.          BELIEVE THAT IRAQ HAS SOME CHEMICAL--
AND POSSIBLY BIOLOGICAL--WARHEADS FOR SCUD-TYPE MISSILES
IRAQ SUCCESSFULLY TESTED A CHEMICAL WARHEAD EARLY LAST
YEAR. BY NOW, BAGHDAD PROBABLY HAS PRODUCED AT LEAST A LIMITED
NUMBER OF THESE WARHEADS.
3. HOWEVER, IRAQ MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY EFFECTIVELY USING CBW
WARHEADS. THE PATRIOT WILL PROBABLY INTERCEPT THEM AT ALTITUDES TOO
HIGH TO CAUSE GROUND-LEVEL CONTAMINATION, EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR A
BIOLOGICAL WARHEAD.
5. OUR ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT ALMOST ALL THE IRAQI MISSILES
LAUNCHED AT ISRAEL AND SAUDI ARABIA ARE BREAKING UP DURING REENTRY,
AND THE WARHEAD IS PROBABLY SEPARATING UNINTENTIONALLY ON MOST OF THE
LAUNCHES. THE SEPARATION MAY CAUSE THE FUSE, REGARDLESS OF THE TYPE,
TO FAIL DEPENDING ON THE HEIGHT OF SEPARATION AND WHERE ON THE
MISSILE THE SEPARATION OCCURS. SOME OF THE INCOMING WARHEADS ON
THESE LAUNCHES DID NOT FUSE ON IMPACT BECAUSE THE ELECTRIC POWER TO
THE WARHEAD WAS CUT DURING SEPARATION BEFORE THE SYSTEM COULD ARM
ITSELF.
6. WHILE AN IMPACT FUSE CAN BE USED FOR CHEMICAL WARHEADS, THE
AREA OF LETHAL CONTAMINATION WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED.
AT THE
EXPECTED          INTERCEPT ALTITUDE OF A PATRIOT MISSILE, MOST BULK-
FILL CW AGENTS WOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. UPPER-
ALTITUDE WINDS WOULD TEND TO BLOW BOTH CW AND BW AGENTS OFF-TARGETS,
AND ANY CW AGENT THAT DID REACH THE GROUND PROBABLY WOULD BE SO
WIDELY DISPERSED AS TO BE RELATIVELY INEFFECTIVE. TO ILLUSTRATE, A
WARHEAD THAT EVENLY DISTRIBUTED 300 KG OF VX COULD EFFECTIVELY COVER
ABOUT 1.5 SQUARE KILOMETERS; SPREADING THIS AMOUNT OVER THE 60
SQUARE-KILOMETER-AREA          WOULD YIELD A NEARLY HARMLESS
CONCENTRATION.
END OF MESSAGE
1.5(C)
65279:65279
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