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cia_63910_63910_01.txt
Subject: IRAQI CAPABILITIES CONVENTIONAL
Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence
TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN
REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN
TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF
THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON
REQUEST.
JAN 91   DIRECTOR 452713
REGARDING IRAQI CAPABILITIES TO USE CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS IN
DELIVERING ARTILLERY SHELLS CARRYING BIOLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL AGENTS
ON OUR FORCES IN THE GULF. WE RECOGNIZE THAT THE IRAQIS HAVE
PURCHASED IN TIMES PAST AN UNSPECIFIED NUMBER OF G-5 FIELD GUNS WHICH
HAVE A MAXIMUM RANGE OF UP TO 42 KILOMETERS. WE ALSO RECOGNIZE THAT
SHELLS FOR THE G-5 CAN BE MODIFIED TO CARRY HIGHLY DESTRUCTIVE
CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL AGENTS.
IRAQ'S BIOLOGICAL WARFARE PROGRAM
1. IRAQ HAS AN EXTENSIVE BIOLOGICAL WARFARE (BW) PROGRAM. IRAQ
HAS PRODUCED LARGE QUANTITIES OF THE BW AGENTS BOTULINUM TOXIN AND
ANTHRAX SPORES. THE IRAQIS PROBABLY HAVE ALREADY FILLED SOME AERIAL
BOMBS AND ARTILLERY ROCKETS WITH BW AGENTS. EVENTUALLY, THE IRAQIS
WILL USE BW AGENTS TO FILL THEIR SCUD-TYPE MISSILES.
2. IRAQ'S EXPERTISE WITH CHEMICAL WEAPONS ALMOST CERTAINLY
REINFORCED ITS DESIRE TO DEVELOP ADDITIONAL UNCONVENTIONAL WEAPONS.
IRAQ'S AGGRESSIVE PURSUIT OF BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS UNDERSCORES OFFICIAL
IRAQI STATEMENTS THAT JUSTIFY THE USE OF ANY WEAPONS TO DEFEND ITS
TERRITORY. MOREOVER, IRAQ'S USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN ITS WAR WITH
IRAN SHOWS THAT IRAQ IS PREPARED TO BACK RHETORIC WITH ACTION.
3. IRAQ BEGAN DEVELOPING ITS OFFENSIVE BW CAPABILITY IN THE
LATE 1970S, DESPITE HAVING SIGNED THE 1972 BIOLOGICAL AND TOXIN
WEAPONS CONVENTION THAT EXPRESSLY PROHIBITS SUCH ACTIVITIES. IRAQ
HAS DEVELOPED BOTULINUM TOXIN AND ANTHRAX SPORES AS BW AGENTS. THE
IRAQIS HAVE INVESTIGATED OTHER LIVING AGENTS AND TOXINS;
BOTULINUM
TOXIN DEGRADES FAIRLY RAPIDLY ON EXPOSURE TO THE ENVIRONMENT, WHILE
ANTHRAX SPORES CAN REMAIN VIABLE FOR WEEKS TO YEARS.
4. IRAQ PROBABLY BEGAN LARGE-SCALE PRODUCTION OF ANTHRAX SPORES
AND BOTULINUM TOXIN          YEARS AGO.
5. WE BELIEVE THERE ARE OTHER FACILITIES INVOLVED IN THE
PROUCTION OF BW AGENTS,          FOR
EXAMPLE          BUILT A CLOSTRIDIUM VACCINE PLANT IN
THE SUBURBS OF BAGHDAD IN THE EARLY 1980S. THIS PLANT COULD EASILY
BE USED TO PRODUCE BOTULINUM TOXIN. THE PHARMACEUTICAL PLANT AT
SAMARRA HAS BEEN PRODUCING VARIOUS VACCINES AND ANTIBIOTICS FOR
YEARS; ITS EQUIPMENT COULD ALSO BE USED TO MAKE BW AGENTS.
IRAQ'S CHEMICAL WARFARE PROGRAM
6. IRAQ HAS THE LARGEST CHEMICAL WARFARE (CW) PROGRAM IN THE
THIRD WORLD. IRAQ HAS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING UP TO          TONS
PER YEAR OF BLISTER AND NERVE AGENTS. DURING THE WAR WITH IRAN, IRAQ
USED A VARIETY OF CHEMICALLY-FILLED MUNITIONS. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD,
IRAQ ALREADY HAS A LIMITED NUMBER OF CHEMICALLY-FILLED MISSILE
WARHEADS.
7. THE WAR WITH IRAN PROMPTED IRAQ TO ACCELERATE ITS PROGRAM TO
DEVELOP A CHEMICAL WARFARE CAPABILITY. IRAQ HAS PRODUCED CHEMICAL
AGENTS AND MUNITIONS SINCE THE EARLY 1980S. THE MAIN CHEMICAL
WARFARE COMPLEX, LOCATED SOME 70 KILOMETERS NORTHWEST OF BAGHDAD NEAR
SAMARRA, HAS PRODUCED THOUSANDS OF TONS OF CHEMICAL AGENTS OVER THE
YEARS. SAMARRA IS AN EXTENSIVE FACILITY THAT CONTAINS CW AGENT
PRODUCTION, MUNITIONS FILLING, AND STORAGE AREAS. IRAQ PRODUCES THE
BLISTER AGENT MUSTARD AND THE NERVE AGENTS SARIN AND TABUN AT
SAMARRA.
8. IRAQ FIRST MADE MILITARY USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN 1983 AND
1984, LHEN IT BEGAN TO USE MUSTARD AND NERVE AGENTS AGAINST IRANIAN
FORCES. IN FACT, IRAQ WAS THE FIRST NATION TO USE NERVE AGENTS ON
THE BATTLEFIELD. THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THESE CHEMICAL ATTACKS WAS
MINIMAL AT FIRST, BUT THE IRAQIS GAINED EXPERIENCE IN THE USE OF
CHEMICAL WEAPONS THROUGHOUT THE WAR. CHEMICAL WEAPONS HELPED BRING
THE WAR WITH IRAN TO AN END IN 1988, WHEN IRAQ INCORPORATED USE OF
NERVE AGENTS INTO A SERIES OF OFFENSIVES.
9. IRAQ PROBABLY DECIDED TO USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS AS A FORCE
MULTIPLIER, TO COMPENSATE FOR IRAN'S MANPOWER ADVANTAGE. IRAQ'S USE
OF CW HELPED TO MINIMIZE IRAQI PERSONNEL AND LAND LOSSES BY STALLING
IRANIAN HUMAN WAVE ATTACKS. IRAQI CW USE WAS ALSO ENHANCED BY
LIMITED IRANIAN CW PROTECTIVE CAPABILITY AND IRAN'S INABILITY TO
RETALIATE IN KIND ON ANY APPRECIABLE SCALE.
10. IRAQ HAS A VARIETY OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS DELIVERY SYSTEMS
AVAILABLE. IN THE WAR WITH IRAN, IRAQ USED AERIAL BOMBS, ARTILLERY
AND MORTAR ROUNDS, AND MULTIPLE ROCKET LAUNCHERS FILLED WITH CW
AGENTS. IN ALL PROBABILITY, IRAQ ALREADY HAS A LIMITED NUMBER OF
WARHEADS AVAILABLE FOR ITS SCUD-TYPE MISSILES.
11. IN APRIL 1990, SADDAM HUSAYN ANNOUNCED THAT IRAQ HAD BINARY
CHEMICAL WEAPONS. IRAQ PROBABLY HAS PRODUCED AT LEAST SOME BINARY
WEAPONS, MOST LIKELY CONTAINING THE NERVE AGENT SARIN. CURRENTLY,
IRAQ HAS A STOCKPILE OF          TONS OF CW AGENT, EQUALLY DIVIDED
BETWEEN BLISTER AND NERVE AGENTS.
END OF MESSAGE
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