cia_71996_71996_01.txt

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Subject: OVERVIEW OF GULF WAR
Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence
TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN
REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN
TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF
THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON
REQUEST.
PAGE 001
FEB 91
SUBJECT:  OVERVIEW OF THE GULF WAR
WE BELIEVE IRAQ'S STRATEGY IS STILL ONE OF SURVIVING THE
AIRSTRIKES AND WAITING FOR A BLTTER SITUATION IN A GROUND BATTLE.
THEY PROBABLY WANT TO CAUSE MAXIMUM CASUALTIES TO THE COALITION
FORCES WITH LITTLE REGARD FOR THEIR OWN CASUALTY RATE. THEY MAY ALSO
BE SEEKING THE BEST SITUATION TO CLAIM A POLITICAL VICTORY IN THE
FACE OF A MILITARY DEFEAT. ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM FOR US WOULD BE A
SCENARIO IN WHICH IRAQI FORCES WITHDREW FROM KUWAIT BUT CONTINUED TO
FIGHT FROM IRAQI SOIL, BEYOND THE MANDATE OF THE COALITION.
MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS:
OUTBREAK OF DISEASE IN IRAQ NOT FROM BW
EGYPTIAN AND SOVIET PRESS RECENTLY HAVE CARRIED STORIES CLAIMING
THAT DISEASE OUTBREAKS IN IRAQ HAVE RESULTED FROM COALITION
AIRSTRIKES ON IRAQI BIOLOGICAL WARFARE FACILITIES.
WHILE OUTBREAKS OF DISEASE PROBABLY ARE OCCURRING IN BAGHDAD AND
OTHER IRAQI CITIES, THE CAUSE ALMOST CERTAINLY IS A LACK OF
SANITATION, NOT EXPOSURE TO BW AGENTS FROM DESTROYED FACILITIES.
MEDIA FOOTAGE SHOWING RAW SEWAGE FILLING SOME STREETS IN BAGHDAD AND
RESIDENTS WASHING COOKWARE IN THE POLLUTED TIGRIS RIVER STRONGLY
SUGGESTS THAT THE REPORTED SYMPTOMS DO NOT MATCH THOSE CAUSED BY ANY
BW AGENT BELIEVED TO BE IN IRAQ'S ARSENAL.
SADDAM'S STRATEGY:  HE HAS BASICALLY THE SAME THREE OPTIONS HE
HAD IN AUGUST:
--HE COULD STRIKE A DEAL, WHICH IS NOT LIKELY
--HE COULD ESCALATE THE WAR VIA CHEMICAL WEAPONS, WHICH IS ALSO
UNLIKELY WITH MOST OF HIS AIR FORCE IN IRAN, OR VIA A GROUND
OFFENSIVE, FOR WHICH HE WOULD HAVE TO OVERRULE HIS GROUND COMMANDERS
--HIS THIRD AND MOST LIKELY OPTION IS THAT HE WILL SIT TIGHT AND
WAIT FOR THE GROUND WAR.
END OF MESSAGE
1.5 (c)
71996-71996

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