cia_65155_65109_01.txt

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Subject: IRAQI NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence
TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN
REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN
TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF
THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON
REQUEST.
JAN 91
37. IRAQ'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM
LEADERSHIP IS SEEKING NUCLEAR WEAPONS TO MEET PERCEIVED SECURITY
NEEDS AND TO FURTHER REGIONAL AMBITIONS. WE HAVE CONCLUDED, BASED ON
BAGHDAD'S ACTIVITIES THAT
AN ACTIVE WEAPONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM EXISTS. IRAQ PROBABLY HAS THE
TECHNICAL COMPETENCE
TO DEVELOP A NUCLEAR WEAPON BY THE
LATE 1990S WITH INDIGENOUSLY PRODUCED FISSILE MATERIAL.
38. SAFEGUARDED ACTIVITIES: IRAQ'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM IS HOUSED
AT THE TUWAITHA NUCLEAR RESEARCH CENTER, SOUTH OF BAGHDAD. THIS
FACILITY CONSISTS OF          5 MW NUCLEAR RESEARCH REACTOR
AND RADIOISOTOPE PRODUCTION LAB, THE 40-70 MW OSIRAK NUCLEAR RESEARCH
REACTOR BUILDING          THE 800 KW ISIS
REACTOR, AND ASSOCIATED LABORATORIES SUPPLIED IN THE 1970S. THESE
LABORATORIES HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO TREAT SOME RADIOACTIVE WASTE,
HANDLE AND PERFORM MEASUREMENTS ON IRRADIATED SAMPLES IN THE HIGH
ACTIVITY ANALYSIS LAB, PERFORM AT LEAST LABORATORY-SCALE
REPROCESSING, AND FABRICATE FUEL ELEMENTS.
39. ACTIVITIES OF CONCERN: SINCE THE BOMBING OF THE OSIRAK
REACTOR IN 1981, IRAQ HAS TURNED ITS ATTENTION TO DEVELOPING FISSILE
MATERIAL THROUGH URANIUM ENRICHMENT. BETWEEN 1984 AND 1986, THE
IRAQIS BUILT THREE NEW LABORATORIES AT TUWAITHA, TWO OF WHICH WE
BELIEVE MAY BE USED TO ESTABLISH A LABORATORYSCALE URANIUM ENRICHMENT
EFFORT. SINCE LATE 1988, IRAOI-DIRECTED INDIVIDUALS AND FIRMS HAVE
SOUGHT CENTRIFUGE TECHNOLOGY AND EQUIPMENT
BY 1989, IRAQ HAD PROBABLY PRODUCED ONE
CENTRIFUGE AS A PROTOTYPE, PROBABLY USING DESIGN INFORMATION OBTAINED
 ILLICITLY
40. BASED ON A VARIETY OF REPORTING SINCE MID-1990,WE BELIEVE
IRAQ'S GOAL IS TO DEVELOP AN ENRICHMENT CAPABILITY THAT WOULD USE
ABOUT 5000 CENTRIFUGES, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ABOUT 100-125 KG
HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM PER YEAR WITH MODIFIED VERSIONS OF THE
CENTRIFUGES. IF IRAQ WERE TO SUCCEED IN PROCURING THE
NECESSARY EQUIPMENT AND MATERIAL NEEDED TO ESTABLISH A URANIUM
ENRICHMENT CAPABILITY, WE BELIEVE BAGHDAD COULD CONCEIVABLY OVERCOME
ANY ENGINEERING PROBLEMS TO BEGIN INITIAL HEU PRODUCTION BY THE
MID-1990S, WITH FULL SCALE PRODUCTION PROBABLY TAKING TILL AT LEAST
THE LATE NINETIES. IRAQ' S          PURSUIT ABROAD OF THE BASIC
COMPONENTS AND SPECIALTY STEELS NECESSARY TO BEGIN BUILDING AN
ENRICHMENT C&PABILITY SUGGESTS AN EFFORT STILL DEPENDENT ON WESTERN
TECHNOLOGY.
41. IRAQ ALSO HAS AN EXTENSIVE CONVENTIONAL ARMAMENTS AND HIGH
EXPLOSIVE R&D FACILITIES THAT COULD BE USED TO DEVELOP THE NON-
NUCLEAR PORTIONS OF NUCLEAR EXPLOSIVED. HIGH EXPLOSIVE R&D
FACILITIES THAT COULD BE INVOLVED IN SUCH WORK INCLUDE AL QA QA AND
AL HADRE.
END OF MESSAGE
1.5 (c)
65155-65109

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