cia_65171_65171_01.txt

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Subject: IRAQ'S BIOLOGICAL WARFARE PROGRA
Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence
TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN
REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN
TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF
THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON
REQUEST.
AUG 90
SUBJECT:          IRAQ'S BIOLOGICAL WARFARE PROGRAM
IRAQ'S BIOLOGICAL WARFARE PROGRAM
IRAQ HAS AN EXTENSIVE BIOLOGICAL WARFARE (BW) PROGRAM THAT
IS ADVANCED AND AGGRESSIVE. IRAQ HAS BEEN PRODUCING LARGE
QUANTITIES OF THE AGENTS ANTHRAX AND BOTULINUM TOXIN SINCE
1989. THE IRAQIS PROBABLY HAVE FILLED LIMITED QUANTITIES OF
THESE AGENTS INTO AERIAL BOMBS AND ARTILLERY ROCKETS ALREADY
AND MAY EVENTUALLY USE BW AGENTS TO FILL SHORT-RANGE BALLISTIC
MISSILE WARHEADS.
AT LEAST THREE FACILITIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE IRAQI BW
PROGRAM,
LOCATED AT SALMAN PAK, CONTAINS A SPECIALIZED
RESEARCH BUILDING FOR WORK ON EXTREMELY DANGEROUS ORGANISMS.
RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT, PILOT-SCALE PRODUCTION, AND STORAGE OF
BW AGENTS TAKE PLACE AT THIS SITE.
IRAQI OFFICIALS HAVE STATED THAT THE USE OF ANY WEAPON IS
JUSTIFIED IN DEFENDING THEIR TERRITORY. IRAQ, THE FIRST NATION
TO USE NERVE AGENTS ON THE BATTLEFIELD, MIGHT NOT HESITATE TO
USE BW AGENTS IN EXTREME SITUATIONS. GIVEN THE THOUSANDFOLD
INCREASE IN LETHAL AREA CONTAMINATION FOR CERTAIN BW AGENTS AS
COMPARED WITH CW AGENTS, IRAQ PROBABLY WOULD NOT USE BW AGENTS
EXCEPT IN STRATEGIC RETALIATION FOR UNCONVENTIONAL ATTACKS
AGAINST IRAQI POPULATION CENTERS. IN SUCH A SCENARIO, IRAQ
MIGHT JUDGE THAT ANY INTERNATIONAL CENSURE RESULTING FROM ITS
USE OF BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS WOULD BE AN ACCEPTABLE CONSEQUENCE.
INTRODUCTION
IRAQ S AGGRESSIVE PURSUIT OF BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS
UNDERSCORES OFFICIAL IRAQI STATEMENTS THAT JUSTIFY THE USE OF
ANY WEAPON TO DEFEND ITS TERRITORY. MOREOVER, IRAQ'S USE OF
CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN ITS WAR WITH IRAN SHOWS THAT IRAQ IS
PREPARED TO BACK RHETORIC WITH ACTION--IRAQ WAS THE FIRST
COUNTRY TO USE NERVE AGENTS ON THE BATTLEFIELD.
IRAQ HAS DEVELOPED BOTULINUM TOXIN AND ANTHRAX BACTERIA AS
BW AGENTS BOTULINUM TOXIN DEGRADES RAPIDLY IN THE
ENVIRONMENT, WHILE ANTHRAX SPORES REMAIN VIABLE IN THE
ENVIRONMENT FOR LONG PERIODS OF TIME.
BOTULINUM TOXIN IS PRODUCED BY CLOSTRIDIUM BOTULINUM, AN
ORGANISM THAT GROWS ANAEROBICALLY, THAT IS, WITHOUT THE
PRESENCE OF AIR. IRAQ SOUGHT ANAEROBIC INCUBATORS AND TONS OF
GROWTH MEDIA FOR CLOSTRIDIUM SEVERAL YEARS AGO.
IRAQ PROBABLY BEGAN LARGE-SCALE PRODUCTION OF ANTHRAX AND
BOTULINUM TOXIN IN 1989. IN ADDITION, SOME LIMITED
WEAPONIZATION PROBABLY HAS TAKEN PLACE ALREADY.
THERE ARE AT LEAST THREE LOCATIONS IN IRAQ INVOLVED IN THE
PRODUCTION OF BW AGENTS: SALMAN PAK, ABU GHRAIB, AND TAJI.
THE ABU GHRAIB AREA, A FEW KILOMETERS WEST OF BAGHDAD IS
THE LOCATION OF A PLANT THAT PRODUCES BOTULINUM TOXIN.
THE TAJI AREA, IN THE NORTHWESTERN SUBURBS OF BAGHDAD, IS
 A SITE OF PILOT-SCALE BW PRODUCTION.
IRAQ HAS AVAILABLE A WIDE RANGE OF WEAPONS SYSTEMS THAT IT
COULD POTENTIALLY USE TO DELIVER BW AGENTS. THE WEAPONS RANGE
FROM SIMPLE AERIAL BOMBS AND ARTILLERY ROCKETS TO
SURFACE TO SURFACE MISSILES (SSM-S).
OPEN LITERATURE INDICATES THAT CARDOEN IS COPRODUCING
CLUSTER BOMBS WITH IRAQ
IRAQ MAY ALSO BE PLANNING TO DEVELOP A BIOLOGICAL
FOR ITS SSM'S.          IRAQ HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED A CHEMICAL WARHEAD FOR ITS SSM. THE NEXT
LOGICAL STEP IN THIS EFFORT WOULD BE TO DEVELOP A BIOLOGICAL
WARHEAD.
EVEN IF BW AGENTS WERE USED IN AN ATTACK, IT WOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE AGENTS HAD IN FACT BEEN
USED FOR EXAMPLE, ANTHRAX IS A COMMON VETERINARY PROBLEM IN
THE MTDDLE EAST, AND UNLESS THERE WAS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE
OUTBREAK OF THE DISEASE IN HUMANS, IT COULD BE EXPLAINED AS
BEING FROM NATURAL CAUSES. IT WOULD ALSO BE DIFFICULT TO
DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN BOTULINUM POISONING AND OTHER FOODBORNE
DISEASES; SYMPTOMS COULD EASILY BE EXPLAINED AS RESULTING FROM
NATURAL CAUSES. AND EVEN IF BOTULINUM TOXIN WAS SUSPECTED AS
BEING USED, ITS RAPID DEGREDATION UPON EXPOSURE TO THE ELEMENTS
WOULD ENSURE THAT NO TRACES OF IT WERE LEFT WITHIN SEVERAL
HOURS AFTER AN ATTACK.
POTENTIAL IRAQI USAGE
PAST IRAQI USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS AND STATEMENTS BY IRAQI
OFFICIALS JUSTIFYING THE USE OF ANY WEAPON TO DEFEND THEIR
COUNTRY SUGGEST THAT IRAQ WOULD CONSIDER USING BIOLOGICAL
WEAPONS UNDER CERTAIN EXTREME CIRCUMSTANCES. IRAQ PROBABLY
WOULD SAVE ITS BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS AS A RETALIATORY OPTION FOR
UNCONVENTIONAL ATTACKS ON IRAQ. GIVEN THE MORE THAN
THOUSANDFOLD INCREASE IN LETHAL AREA CONTAMINATION FOR SOME BW
AGENTS AS COMPARED WITH CW AGENTS, IRAQ PROBABLY VIEWS BW
AGENTS AS A TERROR WEAPON FOR USE AGAINST MILITARY AND CIVILIAN
TARGETS.
BY THE END OF 1990, IRAQ WILL HAVE DEPLOYED A MILITARILY
SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF BIOLOGICALLY FILLED BOMBS AND ARTILLERY
ROCKETS(1). IN ADDITION, IRAQ WILL DEVELOP A BW WARHEAD FOR
ITS INDIGENOUSLY PRODUCED SCUDS. THIS WEAPON COULD BE
OPERATIONALLY READY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW YEARS
(1) BECAUSE OF THE LARGE AREA OF COVERAGE PROVIDED BY
BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS, EVEN A FEW DOZEN WOULD BE MILITARILY
SIGNIFICANT.
IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT BAGHDAD HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED
ADDITIONAL BW AGENTS,
CANDIDATES INCLUDE VIRUSES AND ADDITIONAL
BACTERIA AND TOXINS.
IRAQ WILL CONTINUE TO PLACE EMPHASIS ON ITS BW PROGRAM.
SADDAM, IN HIS QUEST TO BE THE LEADER OF THE ARAB WORLD,
PROBABLY BELIEVES THAT HIS BW PROGRAM PLACES HIM IN AN ELITE
HE HAS ALREADY STATED THAT HE IS THE THIRD
LEADER TO DEVELOP BINARY CHEMICAL WEAPONS
END OF MESSAGE
1.5(C)
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