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Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

cia_65139_65101_01.txt
Subject: EFFECTS OF DESERT STORM ON IRAQ
Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence
TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN
REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN
TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF
THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON
REQUEST.
FEB 91     DIRECTOR 518089
THE EFFECTS OF OPERATION DESERT STORM
ON IRAQ'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM AS OF
FEBRUARY1991
WE BELIEVE THAT IRAQ'S SHORT-TERM OPTION FOR A NUCLEAR
EXPLOSIVE CAPABILITY HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED BUT NOT
NECESSARILY ELIMINATED BY OPERATION DESERT STORM' THE
SHORT-TERM OPTION LINGERS BECAUSE OF REMAINING FACILITIES AT
THE TUWAITHA NUCLEAR RESEARCH CENTER AND UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
EXACT STATUS OF THE SAFEGUARD FUEL.
-- WE BELIEVE IT IS MOST LIKELY THAT IRAQ'S SAFEGUARDED
HIGHLY ENRICHED RESEARCH REACTOR FUELS WERE IN THE
REACTORS AT THE TIME OF THE INITIAL OPERATION DESERT STORM
RAIDS. HOWEVER, WE CANNOT RULE OUT THAT IRAQ MOVED THESE
FUELS PRIOR TO THE RAIDS ON TUWAITHA.
WHILE BOTH OF IRAQ'S KNOWN RESEARCH REACTORS PROBABLY
SUSTAINED MAJOR DAMAGE TO CRITICAL COMPONENTS SUCH AS CONTROL
AND COOLING EQUIPMENT, THEIR FUELS COULD STILL BE RECOVERABLE'
RADIATION CONTAMINATION AT TUWAITHA
THE BOMBING OF THE
REACTORS AT THE TUWAITHA NUCLEAR RESEARCH CENTER PROBABLY
WOULD HAVE RESULTED ONLY IN LIMITED LOCAL RADIATION
CONTAMINATION--ASSUMING THE FUELS WERE IN THE REACTOR PRIOR TO
THE ATTACK. ON THE BASIS OF          RESEARCH
REACTOR TECHNICAL CHARACTERISTICS, THERE IS PROBABLY LITTLE, IF
ANY, SIGNIFICANT RADIATION CONTAMINATION OUTSIDE OF A FEW
KILOMETERS FROM TUWAITHA. RADIATION CONTAMINATION AT TUWAITHA
WOULD COME LARGELY FROM THE POTENTIAL DISPERSAL OF THE IRT
REACTOR FUEL BECAUSE THE          FUEL IS ALMOST CERTAINLY
BURIED UNDER RUBBLE.
IN THE MOST SEVERE CASE--WHICH WE DON'T BELIEVE HAS
OCCURRED--THEM REACTOR WOULD HAVE BEEN OPERATING BEFORE THE
ATTACK AND THE FUEL AND OTHER CORE MATERIALS WOULD HAVE TAKEN A
DIRECT HIT. THEN, THROUGH A MOST UNFAVORABLE CHAIN OF EVENTS,
THESE MATERIALS WOULD BE SCATTERED AROUND TUWAITHA AND SOMEHOW
FORCED TO BURN' RADIOACTIVE PARTICLES COULD THEN ESCAPE THE
BERMED CONFINES OF TUWAITHA TO CONTAMINATE A FEW SQUARE
KILOMETERS OF AREA DOWN WIND.
ADVERSE HEALTH CONSEQUENCES FROM THE BOMBING OF THE
REACTOR WOULD ALSO BE LIMITED TO THE AREA' IN THE WORST-CASE
DISPERSAL OF RADIOACTIVITY JUST DESCRIBED,
SCIENTIST SPECIALIZING IN          REACTOR SAFETY ESTIMATED THAT THE
RADIATION DOSE WOULD NOT BE GREATER THAN I REM INTERNALLY AND
0.3 REM EXTERNALLY AT A DISTANCE OF 100 METERS FROM THE REACTOR
IF PERSONNEL DID NOT LINGER IN LEAVING THE AREA. ((NOTE: THE
REM IS A UNIT OF THE EFFECTS OF RADIATION. SPECIFICALLY, THE
REM IS NUMERICALLY EQUAL TO THE ABSORBED DOSE OF RADIATION
MULTIPLIED BY SOME FACTOR THAT SCALES THE EFFECT OF THE
RADIATION. TEN REM PER HOUR IS APPROXIMATELY ONE MILLION TIMES
GREATER THAN NATURAL BACKGROUND RADIATION AND MORE THAN ONE
THOUSAND TIMES GREATER THAN NORMALLY ACCESSIBLE AREAS IN A U.S.
NUCLEAR POWER PLANT. A TOTAL DOSE OF 600 REM WOULD HAVE A 50
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF BEING FATAL,          ALTHOUGH SUCH DOSES
ARE NOT TRIVIAL, THE CONDITIONS REQUIRED TO CREATE SUCH
CONTAMINATION ARE NOT VERY LIKELY TO HAVE OCCURRED. IN ANY
CASE, THE POTENTIAL RADIATION RELEASED FROM THE DESTRUCTION OF
THESE REACTORS IS MINISCULE IN COMPARISON WITH THE CHERNOBYL
ACCIDENT.
IT IS POSSIBLE,
THAT BOTH REACTORS WERE DAMAGED
TO THE EXTENT THAT IRRADIATED FUELS MIGHT BE EXPOSED. IF THE
REACTOR WERE TO SUFFER A DIRECT HIT, ITS BRITTLE FUEL
ELEMENTS COULD BE SHATTERED AND DISPERSED, POTENTIALLY
PRODUCING INITIAL RADIATION LEVELS OF THOUSANDS OF REM/HOUR IN
VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FUEL. IF THE FUEL WAS DISPERSED
OVER AN AREA OF ABOUT 100 SQUARE METERS, DOSE RATES OF 100
REM/HOUR COULD EXIST. THESE DOSE RATES WOULD DECLINE WITH
TIME; ROUGHLY, BY A FACTOR OF FOUR AFTER TWO MONTHS.
ALTERNATIVELY, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE IRRADIATED FUEL COULD BE
INTACT WITHIN THE REMNANTS OF THE BUILDING, POSING LITTLE OR NO
RADIOLOGICAL HAZARD'
END OF MESSAGE
1.5 (c)
65139-65101
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