Subject: CW WEAPONIZATION Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON REQUEST. AUG 90 EZ1 194829 SUBJECT: UPDATE ON CW WEAPONIZATION OF IRAQI SURFACE-TO-SUFACE MISSILES BOTTOM LINE ASSESSMENT IS THAT FOR PRACTICAL (WORSE CASE) PURPOSES WE CANNOT DISCOUNT THE PROBABILITY THAT IRAQ HAS AN OPERATIONAL CW WARHEAD CAPABILITY FOR ITS SCUD B, AL HUSAYN, AND AL ABBAS BALLISTIC MISSILES AND FOR THE FROG ROCKET AS WELL. WE MUST ASSUME AT THIS POINT THAT IRAQ HAS THE CAPABILITY TO INTERCHANGE CW AND HIGH EXPLOSIVE WARHEADS. IRAQ HAS TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF PEACE WITH IRAN TO DEVELOP ADVANCED CW AGENTS AND DELIVERY SYSTEMS AND MAY SOON BECOME SELF-SUFFICIENT IN THE MANUFACTURE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS. BY 1992 IRAQ WILL HAVE COMPLETED SEVERAL FACILITIES THAT WILL SUPPLY NEARLY ALL OF THE PRECURSOR CHEMICALS NEEDED TO SUPPORT LARGE-SCALE CW AGENT PRODUCTION. IRAQ IS SIMULTANEOUSLY DEVELOPING FIVE TYPES OF SHORT TO INTERMEDIATE-RANGE BALLISTIC MISSILES THAT MAY BE FITTED WITH CHEMICAL WARHEADS. THIS WOULD AUGMENT ITS EXTENSIVE SHORT-RANGE TACTICAL CAPABILITIES. (IN CONCERT WITH DEVELOPING A MORE SOPHISTICATED CW STOCKPILE, IRAQ IS MAINTAINING A WIDE RANGE OF BATTLEFIELD-PROVEN DELIVERY OPTIONS, INCLUDING BOMBS, SHELLS, AND ARTILLERY ROCKETS (FROG).) ALTHOUGH IRAQ HAS HAD GREAT SUCCESS WITH BALLISTIC MISSILES ARMED WITH CONVENTIONAL HIGH EXPLOSIVES, THE INACCURACY OF ITS MISSILE SYSTEMS MAY ENCOURAGE THE USE OF CHEMICAL WARHEADS, WHICH CAN DISPERSE LETHAL CONCENTRATIONS OVER A LARGE AREA, ARE MORE COST EFFECTIVE, RESULT IN GREATER NUMBER OF HUMAN CASUALTIES AND PROVIDE A PSYCHOLOGICAL EDGE. IRAQ BELIEVES IT NEEDS CHEMICAL WEAPONS SUITABLE FOR DETERRENT PURPOSES, PRIMARILY AGAINST ISRAEL AND AS A KEY WEAPON SUPPORTING ITS DESIRED ROLE AS MILITARY PROTECTOR OF THE ARAB WORLD, IRAQ BELIEVES ITS CHEMICAL WEAPONS ARE SUITABLE DETERRENTS AGAINST ISRAEL CONTINUED EMPHASIS ON DEVELOPING NEW OR IMPORVED STRATEGIC SYSTEMS, SUCH AS LONGER RANGE SURFACE-TO-SURFACE MISSILES AND THE "BIG GUN" LONG-RANGE ARTILLERY PROJECT, PROBABLY ARE TIED TO IRAQ'S DESIRE TO IMPROVE THE LETHALITY AND RANGE OF ITS CHEMICAL THREAT. IRAQ WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE HIGH PRIORITY TO COMPLETING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERN, SELF-SUFFICIENT CW PRODUCTION FACILITIES AND DELIVERY SYSTEMS. THE TREND TOWARD SELF-SUFFICIENCY AND REDUNDANCY IN THESE AREAS PARALLELS IRAQ'S EFFORTS IN OTHER TOP PRIORITY PROGRAMS, SUCH AS THE SURFACE-TO-SURFACE MISSILE PROGRAM. WE JUDGE THAT TACTICAL USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS HAS BEEN INCORPORATED INTO IRAQI MILITARY DOCTRINE. THE DECISION TO USE CHEMICALS, PRIMARILY DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE IRAN IRAQ WAR WAS UNDOUBTEDLY INFLUENCE BY THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT IRANIAN COUNTERCAPABILITY. WE BELIEVE IRAQ WOULD BE LESS LIKELY TO INITIATE USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN FUTURE SCENARIOS IF ITS OFPONENT WAS ARMED WITH A CREDIBLE CW CAPABILITY. END OF MESSAGE 1.5(c) 64987:64987First Page |Prev Page |Next Page |Src Image
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