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cia_64987_64987_01.txt
Subject: CW WEAPONIZATION
Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence
TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN
REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN
TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF
THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON
REQUEST.
AUG 90
EZ1
194829
SUBJECT: UPDATE ON CW WEAPONIZATION OF IRAQI
SURFACE-TO-SUFACE MISSILES
BOTTOM LINE ASSESSMENT IS THAT FOR PRACTICAL (WORSE CASE)
PURPOSES WE CANNOT DISCOUNT THE PROBABILITY THAT IRAQ HAS AN
OPERATIONAL CW WARHEAD CAPABILITY FOR ITS SCUD B, AL HUSAYN,
AND AL ABBAS BALLISTIC MISSILES AND FOR THE FROG ROCKET AS
WELL. WE MUST ASSUME AT THIS POINT THAT IRAQ HAS THE
CAPABILITY TO INTERCHANGE CW AND HIGH EXPLOSIVE WARHEADS.
IRAQ HAS TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF PEACE WITH IRAN TO
DEVELOP ADVANCED CW AGENTS AND DELIVERY SYSTEMS AND MAY SOON
BECOME SELF-SUFFICIENT IN THE MANUFACTURE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS.
BY 1992 IRAQ WILL HAVE COMPLETED SEVERAL FACILITIES THAT WILL
SUPPLY NEARLY ALL OF THE PRECURSOR CHEMICALS NEEDED TO SUPPORT
LARGE-SCALE CW AGENT PRODUCTION.
IRAQ IS SIMULTANEOUSLY DEVELOPING FIVE TYPES OF
SHORT TO INTERMEDIATE-RANGE BALLISTIC MISSILES THAT MAY BE
FITTED WITH CHEMICAL WARHEADS. THIS WOULD AUGMENT ITS
EXTENSIVE SHORT-RANGE TACTICAL CAPABILITIES.
(IN CONCERT WITH DEVELOPING A
MORE SOPHISTICATED CW STOCKPILE, IRAQ IS MAINTAINING A WIDE
RANGE OF BATTLEFIELD-PROVEN DELIVERY OPTIONS, INCLUDING BOMBS,
SHELLS, AND ARTILLERY ROCKETS (FROG).)
ALTHOUGH IRAQ HAS HAD GREAT SUCCESS WITH BALLISTIC
MISSILES ARMED WITH CONVENTIONAL HIGH EXPLOSIVES, THE
INACCURACY OF ITS MISSILE SYSTEMS MAY ENCOURAGE THE USE OF
CHEMICAL WARHEADS, WHICH CAN DISPERSE LETHAL CONCENTRATIONS
OVER A LARGE AREA, ARE MORE COST EFFECTIVE, RESULT IN GREATER
NUMBER OF HUMAN CASUALTIES AND PROVIDE A PSYCHOLOGICAL EDGE.
IRAQ BELIEVES IT NEEDS CHEMICAL WEAPONS SUITABLE
FOR DETERRENT PURPOSES, PRIMARILY AGAINST ISRAEL AND AS A KEY
WEAPON SUPPORTING ITS DESIRED ROLE AS MILITARY PROTECTOR OF THE
ARAB WORLD, IRAQ BELIEVES ITS CHEMICAL WEAPONS ARE SUITABLE
DETERRENTS AGAINST ISRAEL          CONTINUED EMPHASIS
ON DEVELOPING NEW OR IMPORVED STRATEGIC SYSTEMS, SUCH AS LONGER
RANGE SURFACE-TO-SURFACE MISSILES AND THE "BIG GUN" LONG-RANGE
ARTILLERY PROJECT, PROBABLY ARE TIED TO IRAQ'S DESIRE TO
IMPROVE THE LETHALITY AND RANGE OF ITS CHEMICAL THREAT. IRAQ
WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE HIGH PRIORITY TO COMPLETING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MODERN, SELF-SUFFICIENT CW PRODUCTION FACILITIES
AND DELIVERY SYSTEMS. THE TREND TOWARD SELF-SUFFICIENCY AND
REDUNDANCY IN THESE AREAS PARALLELS IRAQ'S EFFORTS IN OTHER TOP
PRIORITY PROGRAMS, SUCH AS THE SURFACE-TO-SURFACE MISSILE
PROGRAM.
WE JUDGE THAT TACTICAL USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS HAS
BEEN INCORPORATED INTO IRAQI MILITARY DOCTRINE. THE DECISION
TO USE CHEMICALS, PRIMARILY DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE
IRAN IRAQ WAR WAS UNDOUBTEDLY INFLUENCE BY THE LACK OF A
SIGNIFICANT IRANIAN COUNTERCAPABILITY. WE BELIEVE IRAQ WOULD
BE LESS LIKELY TO INITIATE USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN FUTURE
SCENARIOS IF ITS OFPONENT WAS ARMED WITH A CREDIBLE CW
CAPABILITY.
END OF MESSAGE
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