cia_65768_65768_01.txt

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Subject: IRAQI BALLISTIC MISSILE   
Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence   
TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN   
REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN   
TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF   
THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON   
REQUEST.   
DIRECTOR 156340 
SUBJECT: INFORMATION ON IRAQI BALLISTIC MISSILE AND CHEMICAL
WEAPONS PROGRAMS
TEXT:
--IRAQ HAS NEARLY 100 FACILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH ITS WEAPON 
OF MASS DESTRUCTION PROGRAMS. 
HABBNIYAH, THE IRAQIS CONCEDED THE FACILITY WAS INTENDED
TO PRODUCE PRECURSORS FOR CHEMICAL WEAPONS. 
BEFORE THE GULF WAR, IRAQ PROBABLY HAD THE TECHNICAL 
COMPETENCE, WHEN COMBINED WITH CLANDESTINELY OBTAINED 
FOREIGN TECHNOLOGY OR ASSISTANCE, TO DEVELOP A NUCLEAR 
WEAPON BY THE LATE 1990S WITH INDIGENOUSLY PRODUCED FISSILE 
MATERIAL. 
--IN A WORST-CASE ASSESSMENT, IRAQ COULD PRODUCE A NUCLEAR 
EXPLOSIVE WITHIN TWO TO FOUR YEARS IF IT HAD A CLANDESTINE 
SOURCE OF SOURCES OF FISSILE MATERIAL. 
--PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT JUDGED THAT IRAQ'S EFFORTS FOCUSED GAS 
CENTRIFUGE URANIUM ENRICHMENT TECHNOLOGY. 
--WE NOW BELIEVE THAT IRAQ COULD HAVE PRODUCED UP TO THREE
KILOGRAMS OF WEAPONS GRADE HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM THROUGH 
COMBINED OPERATIONS OF ELECTROMAGNETIC ISOTOPE SEPARATORS AT 
TUWAITHA AND TARMIYAH, BUT THE ACTUAL AMOUNT MAY BE BELOW 
ONE KILOGRAM. 
--WE CANNOT DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY THAT IRAQ COULD HAVE 
PRODUCED TWO OR THREE TIMES AS MUCH MATERIAL USING THE EMIS 
PROCESS IF THEY HAD ACHIEVED A PROCESS BREAKTHROUGH OR 
STARTED WITH ENRICHED URANIUM FEED OF WHICH WE ARE NOT 
AWARE. 
IRAQ'S CW PROGRAM 
BEFORE DESERT STORM, IRAQ'S CHEMICAL WARFARE PROGRAM 
APPEARED TO BE THE LARGEST IN THE THIRD WORLD. 
--IRAQ PROBABLY HAD THE CAPACITY TO PRODUCE AT LEAST 2,000 
TONS OF THE BLISTER AGENT SULFUR MUSTARD AND NERVE AGENTS 
PER YEAR, WITH A PREWAR STOCKPILE OF AT LEAST 1,000 TONS OF 
THESE AGENTS. 
--IT MAY ALSO HAVE POSSESSED LIMITED QUANTITIES OF OTHER 
AGENTS, SUCH AS THE NERVE AGENT VX 
--IRAQ PROBABLY COULD DELIVER ITS CW AGENTS USING A VARIETY 
OF MUNITIONS, INCLUDING ARTILLERY SHELLS AND ROCKETS, AERIAL 
BOMBS, SPRAY TANKS, MORTAR ROUNDS, AND SCUD-TYPE MISSILE 
WARHEADS. 
--AT THE TIME OF THE INVASION OF KUWAIT, THE IRAQIS WERE IN 
THE MIDST OF ASSEMBLING AN INDIGENOUS PRECURSOR PRODUCTION 
INFRASTRUCTURE WHICH, IF COMPLETED ON SCHEDULE, WOULD HAVE 
LARGELY FREED IRAQ OF DEPENDENCE ON PRECURSOR IMPORTS BY 
1993.
--IRAQ CLAIMS TO HAVE PRODUCED ONLY 104 TONS OF NERVE AGENT 
INTERMEDIATES WHICH WOULD PERMIT THE PRODUCTION OF ABOUT 130 
TONS OF SARIN--ABOUT THE AMOUNT USED BY IRAQ IN A SINGLE 
BATTLE WITH IRAN IN 1988. 
--IRAQI OFFICIALS CLAIMED THAT THE BUNKER HOUSING SARIN 
PRODUCTION HAD BEEN DESTROYED DURING THE WAR, 
EVIDENCE INDICATES THE BUNKER HAS SURVIVED WITH MUCH LIGHTER 
DAMAGE
THE BW PROGRAM 
BEFORE THE GULF WAR, IRAQ HAD THE LARGEST BW CAPABILITY IN 
THE THIRD WORLD AND HAD BOMBS AND PROBABLY MISSILE WARHEADS 
FILLED WITH AT LEAST TWO BW AGENTS. 
--IRAQ HAD PRODUCED LARGE QUANTITIES OF AT LEAST TWO BW 
AGENTS: ANTHRAX SPORES AND BOTULINUM TOXIN. 
--IN ADDITION, IRAQ PROBABLY HAS BEEN RESEARCHING VIRUSES, 
ADDITIONAL TOXINS AND LIVING AGENTS, TO BE WEAPONIZED BW 
AGENTS. 
--THE IRAQIS PROBABLY COULD DELIVER BW AGENTS IN MISSILE 
WARHEADS--UP TO RANGES OF 900 KM, AERIAL AND CLUSTER BOMBS, 
AND ARTILLERY ROCKETS AND HAD SIGNIFICANT QUANTITIES OF BW 
AGENT IN BULK STORAGE.
THE BALLISTIC MISSILE PROGRAM 
IRAQ HAD THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND ADVANCED BALLISTIC MISSILE 
PROGRAM IN THE ARAB WORLD. 
--BEFORE THE WAR, IRAQ HAD PRODUCED SOME CHEMICAL WARHEADS 
FOR ITS SCUD AND AL HUSAYN MISSILES AND THE TECHNICAL 
CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE BIOLOGICAL WARHEADS FOR THESE 
MISSILES. 
 
1991 AND WITNESSED THE DESTRUCTION OF ALL IRAQ'S DECLARED 
BALLISTIC MISSILE FORCE EXCEPT FOR 28 FIXED MISSILE LAUNCHER 
LOCATED IN WESTERN IRAQ AND 30 CHEMICAL WARHEADS. 
END OF MESSAGE                                                         
65768-65768                                   
1.5(c)

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