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Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

cia_65549_65549_01.txt
Subject: IRAQ CW    
Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence    
TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN    
REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN    
TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF    
THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON    
REQUEST.    
1. WE HAVE NO INFORMATION TO CONFIRM THAT IRAQ HAS DEVELOPED 
OR MANUFACTURED BW WARHEADS FOR ITS BALLISTIC MISSILES.  
HOWEVER, IRAQ HAS THE ABILITY TO WEAPONIZE ITS BW AGENTS--
INCLUDING ANTHRAX SPORES--AND WE BELIEVE IT IS WELL WITHIN 
IRAQ'S TECHNICAL CAPABILITIES TO PRODUCE BW WARHEADS FOR ITS 
SCUD MISSILES. 
2. IT PROBABLY WOULD TAKE ONLY ONE BW WARHEAD TO NEUTRALIZE 
ANYONE GIVEN TARGET.  OUR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AL 
HUSAYN,  CARRYING ABOUT 100 KG OF DRIED ANTHRAX SPORES, 
WOULD THEORETICALLY PRODUCE A MAXIMUM AREA OF LETHAL 
CONTAMINATION OF 1,600 SQUARE KILOMETERS.  THAT WOULD BE A 
DISPERSION AREA ABOUT 90 KM LONG AND 15 KM WIDE AT THE 
WIDEST POINT.  OTHER IRAQI BW AGENTS WOULD BE EQUALLY 
POTENT: BOTULINUS TOXIN WOULD PRODUCE A MAXIMUM LETHAL AREA 
OF CONTAMINATION OF ABOUT 21 SQUARE KILOMETERS AND ANTHRAX 
SPORES IN SOLUTION WOULD PRODUCE AN AREA OF ABOUT 110 SQUARE 
KILOMETERS.  BY WAY OF CONTRAST, A COMPARABLE CW FILL WOULD 
HAVE A MAXIMUM AREA OF LETHAL CONTAMINATION OF ABOUT 0.0036 
SQUARE KILOMETERS FOR SULFUR  MUSTARD, 0.067 SQUARE 
KILOMETERS FOR SARIN, AND 0.36 SQUARE KILOMETERS FOR VX.  
IRAQ ONLY NEEDS A FEW BW-TIPPED MISSILES IN ITS STOCKPILE TO 
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CASUALTIES.
END OF MESSAGE 
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