Document
| 970606_aadem_ |
Pages
OCT 05 '90 13:17
DATE: 5 October 1990
TO: 5WWg DNS
ATIN: Capt V. Wendt
Plense call ext 7791 or 7260 for pick up
FROM : George D. Greenly
LAWRENCE LIVERMORE NATIONAL LABORATORY
Atmospheric & Geophysical Sciences Division
P. O. Box 808, L-262
Livermore, CA 94550
Phone: FTS: 532-1823
Coml: [415] 422-1823
A . R . A . C
Atmospheric Release
Advisory Capability
The document containe 10 pages
excluding this sheet.
Memo for Record 5 October 1990
Subject: Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC)
Calculations for USAF TAC/IN
1. Due to the nature of the original request and the paucity of data regarding source terms
we have made several assumptions. The purpose of this memo is to provide a record
and clarification of those assumptions and the background reasoning from which they
were derived. Additionally a description of the graphical plot format is provided to
assist in their interpretation.
2. The attached calculations were made with the MATHEW/ADPIC suite of atmospheric
transport and diffusion models. MATTHEW is a mass consistent wind field model
which provides the three-dimensional winds to the Atmospheric Diffusion Particle in
Cell (ADPIC) model.
3. Since all of the six target sites provided to us are in flat terrain our model for these
calculations did not include any terrain ejects. The information that we received about
the targets prompted us to consider two source descriptions and a grid that would be
generic to any of the targeted areas. "Calc #1" is for a strike on one bunker or one
building. Assuming weapons are laid down within five minutes, the resulting smoke
cloud from the deflagration will contain the onginal H.E. detonation cloud from the
first strike. This assumption is based on a 2.5 meter per second (5 kt) surface-wind
and a top of the mixing layer wind of not more than 4.0 meters per second (8 kts) and
neutral stability conditions. The smoke source cloud immediately following
deflagration is assumed to be surface based with a 54 m (177 ft) horizontal radius and
a height of 493 m (1,617 ft). We have assumed a generic source material with a
normalized amount of 100 kilograms of toxins within the smoke cloud. We have
assumed a particle size distribution wide a median diameter of 1.0 micrometers and a
geometric standard deviation of 1.5 micrometers. It should be noted that this
assumption does not consider agglomeration of the source material within the smoke
cloud. If source amounts can be further refined the calculations can be scaled up or
down from the 100 kg generic source amount. We have described the material as
being genenc. We have assumed that any of the four source toxins that survive and are
in the smoke cloud will be in the size range noted above. Since we know very little
about the toxicity of these toxins we have calculated the integrated air concentrations
(units of mg-seconds/m3) and the surface deposition (units of mg-m2) of one generic
source. The number of toxins in the source will not affect the total transport and
diffusion of the source cloud if they all have the same size distribution.
4. As noted above we have utilized a generic grid, i.e., the x and y axes are in units of
kilometers. They do not relate to any geographical reference point. We have
considered the clirnatology of the area and the objectives of the mission and concluded
that the optimum strike time, from a dispersion viewpoint, would be when the
atmosphere is slightly stable to neutral and the wind speeds in the mixing layer are light
(2-4 m/sec; 5-8 levels). The area climatology shows generally northwesterly flow
over the region during the fall and winter months. That is why we chose a transport
wind of 315 degrees at the surface veering to 330 degrees at the top of the mixing level.
Since this is on a generic grid the plots could be rotated to coincide with any surface
wind providing the mixing layer wind did not veer more than in this calculation. The
map scale is 1:312,000 for the 50 km map and 1:62,500 for the 10 km enlargements.
We can scale the plots to any map scale.
5. "Calc #2" has been constructed with the same basic assumptions with the exception of
the source physical description. In this calculation we have assumed a strike on an
array of buildings and/or bunkers. The source smoke cloud size differs from
"Calc #1 " in that it has a horizontal diameter of 432 meters. The cloud height remains
at 493 meters (1617 ft). All other assumptions are the same as "Calc #1". There is
little difference in the two calculations. We feel that this is somewhat artificial but
understandable. We believe that the nested calculational grid scale resolution is the key.
For expediency the calculational grids were kept the same for both calculations. A
smaller calculational grid scale (not just an enlargement of the picture) would show a
difference close in to the source (i.e., larger areas involved). We have included a
10 km enlargement of the two calculations for clarification of the ''close in"
concentration and deposition areas.
George D. Greenly, Jr., CCM
ARAC Operations Tearn Leader
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
2
ARAC Computer Si mulation Notes
Total Deposition
Generated: 5 OCT90 1521 Z
Remarks: Calc # 2
100 kg release
10 min burn
493 m high x 432 m wide
Total Deposition at 0.0 m
04OCT90 0000 Z to 04OCT90 0800 Z
Material: Generic
Contours:
(Level and Area Covered)
[XXX] $gt; 3.00E-01 mg/m2
Area Covers 4.52 sq km
[-----] $gt; 3.00E-02 mg/m2
Area Covers 247.20 sq km
[//////] $gt; 3.00E-03 mg/m2
Area Covers 408.08 sq km
[\\\\\\] $gt; 3.00E-04 mg/m2
Area Covers 463.96 sq km
[l l l l] $gt; 3.00E-05 mg/m2
Area Covers 480.57 sq km
______________
5.0 km
5.0 mi
ARAC Computer Simulation Notes
Inleg. Air Conc.
Generated: 4OCT90 2319 Z
Remarks: Calc #1
100 kg release
10 min burn
493 m high x 108 m wide
Integrated at 1.5 m
04OCT90 0000 Z to 04OCT90 0800 Z
Material: Generic
Contours:
(Level and Area Covered)
[XXX] $gt; 1.00E+02 mg-s/m3
Area Covers 3.36 sq km
[------] $gt; 1.00E+01 mg-s/m3
Area Covers 115.86 sq km
[/ / / / ] $gt; 1.00E+00 mg-s/m3
Area Covers 367.04 sq km
[\ \ \ \ ] $gt; 1.00E-01 mg-s/m3
Area Covers 477.05 sq km
[l l l l ] $gt; 1.00E-02 mg-s/m3
Area Covers 553.14 sq km
5.0 km
5.0 mi
ARAC Computer Simulation Notes
Integ. Air Conc.
Generated: 5OCT90 1527 Z
Rernarks: Calc #1 (close - in 10 km)
100 kg release
10 min burn
493 m high x 108 m wide
Integrated at 1.5 m
04OCT90 0000 Z to 04OCT90 0800 Z
Material: Generic
Contours:
(Level and Area Covered)
[XXX] $gt; 1.00E+02 mg-s/m3
Area Covers 3.36 sq km
[------] $gt; 1.00E+01 mg-s/m3
Area Covers 115.86 sq km
[/ / / /] $gt; 1.00E+00 mg-s/m3
Areas Covers 367.04 sq krn
[\ \ \ \] $gt; 1.00E-01 mg-s/m3
Area Covers 477.05 sq km
[ l l l l] $gt; 1.001E-02 mg-s/m3
Area Covers 553.14 sq km
1.0 km
1.0 mi
ARAC Computer Simulation Notes
Total Deposition
Generated: 4OCT90 2319 Z
Remarks: Calc #1
100 kg release
10 min burn
493 m high x 108 m wide
Total Deposition at 0.0 m
04OCT90 0000 Z to 04OCT90 0800 Z
Material: Generic
Contours:
(Level and Area Covered)
[XXX] $gt; 3.00E-01 mg/m2
Area Covers 6.24 sq km
[------] $gt; 3.00E-02 mg/m2
Area Covers 252.95 sq km
[/ / / / ] $gt; 3.00E-03 mg/m2
Area Covers 397.68 sq km
[\ \ \ \] $gt; 300E-04 mg/m2
Area Covers 449.02 sq km
[ l l l l] $gt; 3.00E-05 mg/m2
Area Covers 458.52 sp kn~
5.0 km
5.0 mi
ARAC Computer Simulation Notes Total Deposition Generated: 5OCT90 1527 Z Remarks: Calc# 1 (close-in 10 krn) 100 kg release 10 min burn 493 m high x 108 m wide Totol Deposition at 0.0 m 04OCT90 0000 Z to 04OCT90 0800 Z Material: Generic Contours: (Level and Area Covered) [XXX] $gt; 3 00E-01 mg/m2 Area Covers 6.24 sq km [------] $gt; 3.00E-02 mg/m2 Area Covers 252.95 sq km [ / / / /] $gt; 3.00E-03 mg/m2 Area Covers 397.68 sq km [\ \ \ \ ] $gt; 3.00E-04 mg/m2 Area Covers 449.02 sq km [ l l l l ] $gt; 3.00E-05 mg/m2 Area Covers 4158.52 sq km 1.0 km 1.0 mi
ARAC Computer Simutation Notes
Integrated Air Concentration
Generated: 5OCT90 1521 Z
Remarks: Calc #2
100 kg release
110 min burn
493 m high x 432 m wide
Integrated at 1.5 m
04OCT90 0000 Z to 04OCT90 0800 Z
Material: Generic
Contours
(Leve and Area Covered)
[XXX] $gt; 1.00E+02 rng-s/m3
Areas Covers 3.18 sq km
[------] $gt; 1.00E+01 mg-s/m3
Area Covers 119.68 sq km
[/ / / /] $gt; 1.00E+00 mg-s/m3
Area Covers 375.10 sq km
[\ \ \ \ ] $gt; 1.00E-01 mg-s/m3
Area Covers 481.03 sq km
[l l l l ] $gt; 1.00E-02 mg-s/m3
Area Covers 530.79 sq km
5.0 km
5.0 mi
ARAC Computer Simulation Notes
Integrated Air Concentration
Generated: 5OCT90 1528 Z
Remarks: Calc #2 (Close-in 10 km)
100 kg release
10 min burn
4 93 m high x 432 m wide
Integrated at 1.5 m
04OCT90 0000 Z to 04OCT90 0800 Z
Material: Generic
Contours:
(Level and Area Covered)
[XXX] $gt; 1.00E+02 mg-s/m3
Area Covers 3.18 sq km
[------] $gt; 1.00E+01 mg-s/m3
Area Covers 119.68 sq km
[/ / / / ] $gt; 1.00E+00 mg-s/m3
Area Covers 375.10 sq km
[\ \ \ \ ] $gt; 1.00E-01 mg-s/m3
Area Covers 4181.03 sq km
[ l l l l ] $gt; 1.00E-02 mg-s/m3
Area Covers 530.79 sq km
l.0 km
1.0 mi
ARAC Computer Simulation Notes
Total Deposition
Generated: 5OCT90 1528 Z
Remarks: Ca# 2 (Close-in 10 km)
100 kg release
10 min burn
493 m high x 432 m wide
Total Deposition at 0.0 m
04OCT90 0000 Z to 04OCT90 0800 Z
Material: Generic
Contours:
(Level and Area Covered)
[XXX] $gt; 3.00E-01 mg/m2
Area Covers 4.52 sq km
[-----] $gt; 3.00E-02 mg/m2
Area Covers 247.20 sq km
[/ / / / ] $gt; 3.00E-03 mg/m2
Area Covers 408.08 sq km
[\ \ \ \ ] $gt; 3.00E-04 mg/m2
Area Covers 463.96 sq km
[ l l l l ] $gt; 3.00E-05 mg/m2
Area Covers 480.57 sq km
1.0 km
1.0 mi
DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE
WASHINGTON DC 20330-1000
OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY
30 Dec 97
MEMORANDUM FOR OSAGWI
ATT: Mike Veasey
FROM: Major Richard D. Williams
SUBJECT. Lawrence Livermore Study
Per your letter dated 22 Dec 1997, Subject: Declassification Request - Lawrence Livermore
National Laboratory Papers. Attached are the last three pages of the Lawrence Livermore study
not previously released. These three pages have been declassified to the fullest extent possible,
and are ready for public release,
If you have any questions regarding this matter. POC is lLt Daniel R. Portillo at DSN 493-
6976 or Commercial (334) 953-6876.
RICHARD D. WILLIAMS, Major, USAF
Deputy Director, SAF/AAZG
Attachment: Declassified Pages
COVD-90-1322
This document consists of .3, pages.
No. 1 of 1 copies. Series COVD
Page 1
September 12, 1990
I. Types of Agents
a. BW - anthrax, botulinum toxin, stapylococcal enterotoxins, clostridium
perfringens, and ricin.
b. CW - mustard (HD), sarin (GB), tabun (GA), GF (thickened GB), VX,
phosgene, BZ and CS,
1) The agents HD, GB, GA GF, VX and phosgene, will be in liquid form.
BZ and CS will be in a gaseous form, There is also a powdered form
of mustard known as "dusty mustard" [(b)(1) sec 3.4 (b)(1)]
II. Delivery Systems
Iraq has a variety of delivery means for their CW weapons. Little if anything is
known of possible BW delivery means. Some information indicates that
botulinum toxins were to be weaponized, however the form of this
weaponization is unknown.
Estimated Amount of Agent
Weapon and Agent if Known
82 mm mortar 1 Kg
120 mm mortar 5 Kg
90 mm rocket 7 Kg (nerve, mustard)
122 mm rocket. 10 Kg (nerve, mustard)
130 mm artillery projectile 24 Kg
Frog SRBM 175 Kg (nerve)
Scud SRBM 500 Kg (nerve)
250 Kg bomb 85 Kg (nerve, mustard)
500 Kg bomb 170 Kg (nerve, mustard)
DC-97-056
COVD-90-1322
Page 2
III.
a. Salman Pak (33-04-15N, 044-35-30E) primary R&D facility for CW/BW.
Has combined CW/BW production capability. Estimated production rates
are 2 tons of Tabun, 3 tons of Sarin, and 5 tons of mustard per day. Has
four large bunkers for storage of CW/SW agents (3 for CW one for BW).
Estimated filled storage capacity 2500 cubic meters per bunker.
b. Samarra (33-50-20N, 043-50-30E) CW production facility. Produces 1000
tons/year of mustard and 500 tons/year nerve agents (sarin and tabun).
Has capability to fill CW munitions. Has six large bunkers for storage of
CW agents with estimated filled capacity of 2,500 cubic meters capacity
per bunker. Also has large storage warehouse for chemical agent feed
material. [(b)(1) sec 3.4 (b)(1)]
C. Habbaniyah I, II, III (33-32-50N 043-37-55E; 33-28-41N 043-40-14E; 33-29-
04N, 043-49-19E) Habbaniyah consists of three identical facilities. Capable
of producing nerve agents and CW precursor materials. Probably fills 90
and 122 mm rockets with nerve agents. Has six rivetted bunkers per
facility with estimated fill storage capacity of 2,500 cubic meters per bunker
and four large warehouse/storage buildings per facility with estimated fill
storage capacity of 7,000 cubic meters per warehouse/storage building.
d. Al Hadre CW Test Facility (35-18-39N, 042-37-59E) Iraq's only known CW
test facility. Has one revetted storage bunker with estimated Filled capacity
of 2,500 cubic meters. However, it is doubtful if this bunker stores large,
quantities of agents or munitions.
e. Tall Munitions Depot (33-32-23N, 044-16-38E) Has eight bunkers probably
for CW munitions with estimated filled capacity of 2,500 cubic meters per
bunker.
f. Al Mausil Airfield Munitions Depot (36-27-29N, 042-59-19E) Has 20 bunkers
probably for CW munitions with estimated filled capacity of 2,500 cubic
meters per bunker.
g. Kirkuk Airfield Munitions Depot (35-28-10N,044-21-08E) Has one probable
CW munitions bunker with estimated filled capacity of 2,500 cubic meters.
COVD-90-1322
Page 3
h. Baghdad Nuclear Research Center "The Empty Quarter" (31-12-24N, 044.
30-57E) This so called empty quarter houses facilities which are possibly
involved in BW research. The facilities present do not include bunker
storage or warehouse-type buildings. So it is uncertain as to how much
BW material could be on hand. However, since this is a R&D facility we
can assume the amounts are not large.
|
NEWSLETTER
|
| Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list |
|
|
|
