Heading Off a Cliff?
Post-Withdrawal Iraq Faces its First Major Test of Stability
Ergo
Just days after the last U.S. troops withdrew from Iraq, the forces that marked the country’s early post-Saddam years—regionalism, sectarianism, and violence—have reemerged with a vengeance.
Earlier this week, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki issued an arrest warrant for Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi on charges of terrorism, igniting tensions between Shi’a and Sunnis. This morning, a wave of bombs ripped through Baghdad, killing at least 63. After nearly nine years of U.S. military presence, one year of an American-backed power-sharing government, and over $1 trillion of U.S. taxpayer dollars spent, this week’s crisis has thrown Iraq's stability into jeopardy, threatening rule of law and the future of its federal structure.
There is much at stake in this crisis: the safety and security of the Iraqi people, the legitimacy of the Iraqi government, and the stability of the Iraqi business environment for Western firms. Iraq’s future hangs in the balance. Will it be a lasting, inclusive democracy and an economic success story, or a spectacular disaster with far-reaching international implications?
In a special dispatch, Ergo analyzes the momentous events of the past several days and addresses these questions:
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- What has happened so far this week?
- Is this crisis any different from Iraq’s other political crises?
- Is Maliki’s move against Hashemi motivated by sectarianism?
- Will this crisis result in broader violent conflict?
- What can the United States do?
- Will these events impact Iraq's oil output?
- Which domestic actors can affect the outcome of this crisis?
Click here to read the dispatch. Please feel free to contact us with any questions. Wishing you all the best for the holiday season and the new year.
Best regards,
RP Eddy
CEO
Ergo, a global intelligence and advisory firm, has unique assets and capabilities in Iraq, developed over seven years of conducting due diligence, competitive intelligence, and geopolitical analysis across the country and throughout the region. We have worked with the world's leading private equity firms, hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, and multinational corporations on topics including oil and gas, agriculture, infrastructure development, and financial services, in both the Arab and Kurdish regions.
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