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The Trouble with the U.S.-Iraq Pact; Saudis Broker Taliban-Karzai Talks

Council on Foreign Relations

Interviewee: F. Gregory Gause III, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Vermont
Interviewer: Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor, CFR.org

October 22, 2008

F. Gregory Gause III, an expert on Iraq and Saudi Arabia, says a lack of leadership among Iraq's Shiite politicians is holding up formal approval of a U.S.-Iraqi security pact, which would allow U.S. forces to remain in Iraq until at least the end of 2011. Gause, who has offered policy advice to the campaign of Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL), thinks the deal will eventually "squeak through" in Iraq through a combination of U.S. pressure and the "maneuverings" of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Gause also speaks about new Saudi efforts to engage the Taliban in talks about the war in Afghanistan. "It seems to be something that Karzai has asked them to do. And in that sense, it'll be interesting to see the results."

You've been following the fortunes of the political parties in Iraq for some time. What is the status of the security agreement which would allow U.S. forces to stay in Iraq beyond the end of this year, and until at least the end of 2011?

There appears to be an tentative agreement, although we haven't seen the text of it. But the Bush administration and the Maliki government have both said they have come to a tentative agreement. I don't think it has to go through the U.S. Congress, but it definitely has to go through the parliament in Iraq, and that's a problem because there just doesn't seem to be much leadership on this. If you look at the major political figures, the members of the Iraqi National Security Council, which is the president, the vice presidents of Iraq, they passed it onto the cabinet without an endorsement.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.