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Analysis: Trouble on the Ballot in Iraq

Council on Foreign Relations

August 6, 2008
Author: Greg Bruno

When Iraq's parliament passed a power-sharing law back in February, paving the way for provincial elections this fall, American politicians bubbled with optimism. The U.S. embassy in Baghdad deemed the provincial powers deal "an important step" (Reuters) in Iraq's transition to democracy. President Bush, who has made elections a cornerstone of his vision for a stable Iraq, said the development will ensure that Iraqis "settle disputes through the political process instead of through violence." But American hopes for reform through democracy have met with a dose of reality. Violence erupted (NYT) in the ethnically divided city of Kirkuk on July 28 after a provincial elections law was rewritten to dilute Kurdish dominance in the northern city. An election bill stalled (Reuters) in early August amidst persistent disagreements over how to deal with the city, and elections once planned for October could be pushed to next year (IHT).

Kurds, Turks, and Arabs all covet northern Iraq's oil-rich provincial capital. Experts warn (PDF) that unrest could surface in Kirkuk if a political solution is not forthcoming. To that end, UN mediators have been working to find a compromise (CSMonitor), and Iraqi lawmakers continue to negotiate an end to the stalemate (NYT). Kurdish politicians, meanwhile, took matters into their own hands (WashPost) by forcing a veto on the measure, a move that has so incensed Sunni opponents that at least one parliamentarian called for President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, to resign (Dar al-Hayat). The Kurds, meanwhile, continue to protest the election law—which would have postponed balloting in Kirkuk while the rest of the country voted. Flag-waving marchers appeared increasingly entrenched (Reuters): "We want nothing but Kirkuk," they chanted.

The Bush administration has long pressed for successful provincial elections in Iraq, but they have proven an elusive goal.

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Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.