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Interview: Iraq Outlook Improves But Sustained U.S. Military Presence Remains Essential

Council on Foreign Relations

Interviewee: Stephen Biddle, Senior Fellow for Defense Policy
Interviewer: Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor

June 10, 2008

Stephen Biddle, CFR's senior fellow for defense policy who recently returned from a tour of Iraqi hotspots, says Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) have become a "more capable military partner" for U.S. troops. He says he found continued improvements, particularly in the ability of the ISF to pacify Diyala and Mosul, and in the beginnings of a reconciliation dialogue between Sunnis and Shiites. One negative aspect of the improvements, Biddle says, is the heightened possibility that military leaders might seek to overthrow what is seen as a dysfunctional government. He says a continued U.S. presence is crucial to help stabilize the situation and serve in a peacekeeping role. “What is achievable is sustainable stability, a sense of an end to large-scale violence that holds over a long period of time,” Biddle says. “That I think is potentially doable in Iraq if the United States expends the necessary effort. If we fail in that, there's a danger that this war could spread throughout the region."

You've just returned from another trip to Iraq. How would you sum up Iraq today?

Well, I would say "continued improvements." Several of the things that I thought were still incomplete and needed to happen in order to move toward something like a nationwide cease-fire have either happened or are in the late stages of happening. And I think that's mostly a good sign. On the flip side of that, there are some new issues that weren't on the radar screen before that have popped up. So there's some news on both sides of the ledger. But on balance, I think we're closer to an end to major violence now than we were in November [when Biddle last visited].

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.