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Analysis: Iraq's Foggy War

Council on Foreign Relations

May 16, 2008
Author: Greg Bruno

Sorting out the victor from the vanquished in Iraq's internal skirmishes is proving increasingly difficult. A deal reached on May 10 (Voices of Iraq) between lawmakers loyal to cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and those allied with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki brought a wave of contradictory proclamations from the Western media punditry. McClatchy Newspapers called the deal to disarm the cleric's Mahdi Army in Sadr City a "surprising capitulation" sure to be hailed as a major win for Maliki's government. The Independent, meanwhile, declared Sadr "the great survivor of Iraqi politics." Attacks on U.S. forces days into the truce raises questions (NYT) about whether the deal will amount to anything in the end.

The cease-fire negotiated between the ruling United Iraqi Alliance and representatives of Sadr's political movement calls for Sadr's fighters in Sadr City to temporarily stand down to allow access to Iraqi forces. Government soldiers will be allowed to search Sadr City for weapons and fighters, albeit with a warrant (LAT). In return the ruling alliance is to cease raids, reopen roads, and increase humanitarian assistance. But as the Christian Science Monitor notes, the deal does not call for the permanent disarming of the Madhi militia, as Maliki has demanded, and only requires militants to keep weapons out of public view. University of Michigan Middle East expert Juan Cole writes on his blog that such developments are like political déjà vu, in which Iraqi lawmakers live through the same day "over and over again."

Clashes in the sprawling Shiite district of Sadr City began in response to a March 25 raid on militias by Iraqi military forces in the southern city of Basra. In retaliation, Mahdi army fighters fired a barrage of rockets into the Green Zone in Baghdad, drawing the ire of the U.S. military.

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Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.