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Analysis: Seeing Iran's Shadow in Iraq Unrest

Council on Foreign Relations

March 28, 2008
Author: Greg Bruno

Black smoke swirled over central Baghdad on March 23, disturbing the fragile calm of the Iraqi capital. The attack on the Green Zone, which killed at least 13 Iraqis (NYT), was followed by the eruption of internecine Shiite violence in Baghdad’s Sadr City and the southern oil port of Basra. Taken together the attacks renewed fears that a year of reduced violence, attributed in part to a beefed-up U.S. presence and a Shiite militia cease-fire, had ended. But in the eyes of U.S. military officials the attacks also highlighted another aspect of Iraq’s security roller coaster: Iran’s complicity in the conflict. After Iran reportedly vowed to cut off the flow of weapons and militants to Iraq in late 2007, and a subsequent wait-and-see attitude (CSMonitor) from Washington, U.S. officials have once again turned to blaming Tehran for Baghdad’s woes (BBC).

There’s little disagreement Iran has influence in Iraq, from political ties to economic links. Kenneth Katzman of the Congressional Research Service notes Iran’s strategy for achieving “strategic depth” (PDF) in Iraq has been to foster strong ties with Iraq’s Shiite-led government. Many in that government spent time exiled in Iran during the eight-year Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s.

Murkier are alleged Iranian ties to Iraqi militants. The Bush administration accuses Iran of supplying money, weapons, and training to Shiite insurgent groups in Iraq, a charge President Bush reiterated on March 27. U.S. military officials say much of the Shiite-on-Shiite violence in Iraq’s south can be attributed to criminal gangs and “special groups,” fighters that have broken ties with Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army. But Rear Adm. Greg Smith, a U.S. military spokesman, says “Iran has influenced” the violence in recent months.

The Pentagon has repeated allegations of Iranian support for Shiite militias despite Iraqi and Iranian denials (Press TV).

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.