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Analysis: Sadr's War

Council on Foreign Relations

March 4, 2008
Author: Greg Bruno

There were few losers in Muqtada al-Sadr’s decision to extend the cease-fire (NYT) of his Mahdi Army on February 22. The anti-American cleric and his large Shiite militia have emerged as a powerful force in the evolving Iraqi power structure. The vow to keep guns holstered for another six months is cause for celebration in U.S. quarters. “This extension …is an important commitment that can broadly contribute to further improvements in security for all Iraqi citizens,” the U.S. military said in a statement.

And yet the biggest winner may be Sadr himself. The Washington Post reports the cleric’s decision marks “another step in his transformation from guerrilla chieftain to political leader.” Others saw the move as part of Sadr’s long-term strategy to beef up political and military credentials while biding time for a possible troop withdrawal during the next U.S. presidential administration. “The game in Iraq is not over,” CFR’s Vali R. Nasr told TIME.

A lack of political progress, including the recent Iraqi government rejection of a parliamentary measure setting up provincial elections, has been viewed as a setback for U.S.-backed national reconciliation efforts. But signs on the security front are more encouraging. Civilian violence—which increased slightly in February 2008 for the first time in months, according to the website Iraqbodycount.org and several Iraqi ministries (BBC)—is significantly down from 2006 levels. U.S. military officials say they will recommend a pause in troop withdrawals (Reuters) to help consolidate the gains. Sadr’s ceasefire is also expected to contribute to the calm (IRIN), though much of the progress had shown up in statistical studies well before the cleric’s February 22 truce extension.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.