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Analysis: Iraq Surge's Mixed Messages

Council on Foreign Relations

January 17, 2008
Author: Greg Bruno

When President Bush announced in January 2007 a surge of five additional combat brigades to Baghdad, he said it would improve security in the capital, giving the Iraqi government the “breathing space it needs to make progress.” But one year after the plan’s announcement, measures of its success remain complicated and politically embroiled, particularly as campaigning for the U.S. presidency heats up.

One of the strategy’s primary goals was to reduce violence through a beefed-up U.S. troop presence in and around Baghdad. The Pentagon says that is happening; insurgent attacks fell 55 percent (PDF) between June and November, though the rate of decline has since slowed somewhat (WashPost). The size of the American force in Iraq is scheduled to return to pre-surge levels in the summer of 2008, but Bush said on January 12 he would leave the final decision on troop totals to Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq.

Stephen Biddle, CFR’s senior defense analyst, noted last month that voluntary cease-fires have helped stabilize once-restive regions, though he adds that more needs to be done in Iraq’s northern and southern provinces. Aware of the trend, coalition forces launched a mini-surge (CSMonitor) in early 2008 to root out remaining al-Qaeda in Iraq strongholds northeast of Baghdad, where militants regrouped after Arab tribes in Anbar province turned against the Islamist extremists. For U.S. Senators John McCain (R-AZ), a leading Republican candidate for president, and Joe Lieberman (I-CT), such initiatives are evidence Bush’s surge has “utterly transformed” (WSJ) Iraq’s security.

Other benchmarks on security are less encouraging. In announcing his “new way forward” Bush called for an increase in the size of the Iraqi army to thirteen divisions from ten, and to 132 battalions from 112. But according to the Defense Department, neither target has been met (PDF).

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.