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Analysis: Refugees Return but Concerns Linger

Council on Foreign Relations

November 20, 2007
Author: Greg Bruno

Joyous photos of Iraqi refugees returning to Baghdad in recent weeks have become something of a rallying cry for U.S. and Iraqi officials. Security is on such an upswing, leaders say, families are doing the once unthinkable: they’re coming home. Iraq’s Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki credits a steep decline in car bombings, suicide attacks, and terrorist strikes for the inflow. “We were able, after eight months of imposing the law, to drive Baghdad from its dark, black days into a brighter time that people feel optimistic about” (NYT).

Iraqi military commanders have been equally upbeat, estimating as many as 46,000 refugees returned nationwide in October 2007 alone. A Ministry of Displacement and Migration spokesman told CNN 10,000 of those were headed for Baghdad.

The return of families to a nation rocked by four-plus years of war is certainly cause for optimism. Baghdad residents are venturing out (McClatchy) to markets and restaurants after dark, and a local television station has begun broadcasting clips of Baghdad nightlife, impossible just a few months ago.

Maj. Gen. Joseph Fil, commander of U.S. troops in Baghdad, eagerly declared(WashPost) on November 7 that the mass exodus has “largely come to a halt,” adding there’s “no question” people are coming home. Newsweek International correspondent Rod Nordland, a frequent visitor to Baghdad, notes that for the first time since the start of the war, conditions appear to be improving. Yet reasons for the homecomings are varied. Sunnis and Shiites alike report unease(AP) as they depart the relative safety of refugee settlements in neighboring countries for an uncertain future in Iraq.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2007 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.