• Military

• WMD Menu                           

• Introduction
• Systems
• Facilities
• Agencies
• Operations
• Countries
• Hot Documents
• News
• Reports
• Policy
• Budget
• Congress
• Links

• Intelligence
• Homeland Security
• Space

Backgrounder: Iraq Security Statistics

Council on Foreign Relations

Author: Greg Bruno
September 12, 2007

Introduction

The aim of President Bush’s “New Way Forward,” announced in January 2007, was to improve security in the Iraqi capital and foster an environment for national reconciliation. In announcing the deployment of thirty thousand additional troops to Iraq, Bush predicted, “daily life will improve, Iraqis will gain confidence in their leaders, and the government will have the breathing space it needs to make progress in other critical areas.” Opinion sharply divides over whether this has been achieved, and some claim that Pentagon statistical methodology fails to reflect the real levels of violence in the country. A trio of independent reports offers a grim assessment of political gains, but conflicting statistics on civilian deaths shroud the debate over Iraq’s future, and U.S. involvement in it. The U.S. military insists progress on the ground can be measured, but some experts accuse the Pentagon of “cherry-picking” positive data.

Military Numbers on Violence

Gen. David H. Petraeus, commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, told Congress on September 10 and 11 that civilian casualties in Iraq—including those killed and wounded—dropped dramatically during the surge of troops. According to numbers compiled by the U.S. military and cited by the general before Congress, Iraqi civilian deaths linked to violence declined by over 45 percent between December 2006 and August 2007, from three thousand deaths monthly to around 1,500 a month. The drop was even greater—70 percent—in Baghdad, where monthly deaths fell from approximately 2,220 to around five hundred. Overall, ethno-sectarian violence declined by about 55 percent; the drop was 80 percent in Baghdad. Car bombings and suicide attacks were also down by nearly 50 percent between March 2007 and August 2007.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2007 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.