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Analysis: U.S. Summer Offensive in Iraq

Council on Foreign Relations

June 20, 2007
Prepared by: Lionel Beehner

With the U.S. military surge finally at full steam, major offensives are underway against Shiite militias in southern Iraq (LAT) and al-Qaeda-linked Sunni insurgents northeast of the capital (NYT). Most of Baghdad remains pacified, despite pockets of resistance, as evidenced by a June 19 truck bombing (AP) against a Shiite mosque that killed seventy-five. But the surge has been partially successful, says Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, as local markets reopen and traffic jams return. Still, there is skepticism any major progress can be achieved in the short span between now and September, when Gen. David Petraeus will give his assessment of the security situation.

The military operations, of course, are aimed at providing the security conditions necessary for economic activity and political reconciliation to take root. Despite billions of dollars in foreign aid, Iraq ranked second to the bottom of the latest “failed states” index compiled by Foreign Policy and the Fund for Peace. But there are scant signs of progress on either front. As this new Backgrounder notes, Iraq’s economy remains anemic—hampered by an underperforming oil sector and an exodus of Iraq’s best and brightest professionals. This Washington Institute report examines Iraq’s growing refugee crisis.

Nor has improved security in Baghdad delivered much progress toward a political compromise among Iraq’s entrenched factions.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2007 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.