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Backgrounder: Iraq's Post-Saddam Insurgency

Council on Foreign Relations

Prepared by: Lionel Beehner, Staff Writer
November 14, 2006

Introduction

Change is afoot within Iraq’s Sunni Arab community. The hangman awaits Saddam Hussein in the months ahead, and experts wonder if this event will galvanize or deflate the Sunni-led insurgency. The government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, a Shiite, has sought to rehabilitate ex-Baathists and has allowed them to return to public life. And for the first time, a religious Sunni organization has embraced the possibility that Iraq may be split into three ethnically divided states. Meanwhile, the insurgency, comprising both homegrown and foreign elements, continues its ferocious campaign against Shiite and U.S.-led forces. The simmering conflict and mounting sectarianism have resulted in the internal displacement of tens of thousands of Sunni Arabs, according to a Brookings Institution paper.

What is driving the Sunni insurgency?

In general, Sunnis believe there is a Shiite plot to control Iraq. They remain suspicious of U.S. attempts to impose democracy because elections, assuming Iraqis vote according to their ethno-religious makeup, favor the majority Shiites. Shiites also comprise the bulk of Iraq’s security forces, which stand accused of organizing death squads and torturing Sunni prisoners. Other Sunni leaders fear the growing influence of Iran, where Shiism is the dominant brand of Islam, over Iraqi politics. In the aftermath of the U.S.-led invasion, Sunnis supported the reinstallation of a Sunni-led government in Baghdad, but now a growing number admit that is not possible and have tempered their goals to include more moderate demands like the rehabilitation of former Baath Party officials. Then there are those with region-wide aspirations, who favor bringing in more Arab states to back their demands and prevent Iraq from joining Iran’s orbit. The Iraqi Islamic Party, a Sunni Arab political party, recently issued videos of attacks against American Humvees in retaliation for Israeli attacks against Palestinian civilians in Gaza.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.