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UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs |
IRAQ: Constitution revision key to reconciliation, analysts say
BAGHDAD, 6 Jul 2006 (IRIN) - Keeping Shi’ite promises and revising the Iraqi constitution to the approval of Sunnis is a crucial starting point in making the country’s reconciliation plan work and curbing daily violence, according to experts.
As such, the Iraqi government prepared draft revisions of the much-maligned document earlier this week. Sunnis have long complained that the country’s new constitution, voted in by an October 2005 referendum, is not representative of their needs and unfairly distributes key government positions and oil revenues.
“[Re-writing the constitution] is a promise that has to be put into practice and for sure it will decrease insurgency in Iraq,” maintains Muthanna Hareth al-Dari, spokesperson for the Sunni Association of Muslim Scholars (AMS).
| • Prefer administrative federalism over ethnic or sectarian system • Preserving Iraqi identity • De-Baathification, allowing former Baath party members to return to politics • Fair distribution of oil and gas revenues |
The rest were won by Kurdish parties and coalition groups.
“An objective expectation would be that the review process will be limited in scope and outcome and that it therefore will fail to help quell the insurgency,” explains Joost Hiltermann, an analyst with the International Crisis Group (ICG). “However, if an overarching peace accord can be concluded that addresses the key issues [federalism,ownership of land in Kirkuk, revenue-sharing, etc] then the review process will become simpler and has much greater chance of succeeding.”
Sunni Arabs have a ‘laundry list’ of issues they want changed in the constitution. The most important one is the nature of the federal system.
“They [Sunnis] prefer administrative federalism over ethnic or
sectarian federalism,” says Hiltermann. “They also want de-
Baathification [permitting former Baath party members to return to politics and work]. They have major concerns about oil/gas revenue sharing and they are concerned about Iraq’s identity.”
Zein Ali, professor of political science at Baghdad University,
concurs that Sunni concerns must be addressed. “Showing that the Shi’ite majority government is keeping its promise to hear the Sunni Arabs’ complaints about the constitution will undoubtedly keep the population and politicians happy and will increase their support for the government, rather than for insurgency.”
The United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), along with the European Union, is offering technical support for the revision of the constitution. However, it will be a long process with the government saying that it could take until the end of the year to complete the task and prepare the ammendments for implementation.
Man with a plan
| Sunnis say: “If he [Prime Minister Nouri Maliki] really wants to bring peace, there needs to be full participation of all groups, regardless of what has happened in the past because this is the only way to show that democracy is here”. |
While Maliki puts on a brave face and insists that the plan can work, experts on the ground are not so optimistic. “The ‘plan’ is a gesture.
A good one, but only a gesture,” says ICG’s Hiltermann. “It's good to be hopeful, but this is only a first, and mostly symbolic, step.”
The need for a reconciliation plan arises from the intensified cycle of violence that the February bombing of a Shi’ite shrine in Samara has triggered. Hundreds have been killed as a result of retaliation attacks between the minority Sunnis and majority Shi’ites. This is in addition to ongoing daily attacks in response to the US-led occupation of Iraq since 2003.
Critics argue that Maliki’s grand plan will not succeed in stemming violence unless it includes all parties. "The reconciliation plan proposed by the new Prime Minister is not valid because he is not involving the participation of all groups and he is excluding all those who have killed US or Iraqi troops,” al-Dari of AMS. “If he really wants to bring peace, there needs to be full participation of all groups, regardless of what has happened in the past because this
is the only way to show that democracy is here.”
According to statistics obtained by the US-based Brookings
Institution, between 273 and 478 civilians were “killed in acts of war” in June alone. It is hoped the plan will bring an end to sectarian fighting and insurgency.
A senior official in the Ministry of Interior, who wishes to remain anonymous, says attacks have neither decreased since the
reconciliation plan was proposed nor since the death of Abu Mussab al-Zarqawi, head of Al-Qaeda’s cell in Iraq. He believes this is because the plan has not been put into practice yet and is still being analysed by the Iraqi parliament.
Withdrawal symptoms
Some 11 Sunni insurgent groups were reported to have agreed to stop attacks on US-led forces, as part of the plan, in return for a two- year timetable for foreign forces to withdraw from Iraq. While Maliki has not rejected the demand outright, US President George Bush has indicated that he has set no deadline for the troops’ eventual departure.
Just a week after the introduction of the reconciliation plan there are already cracks forming with reports that a number of insurgent groups have posted messages on the Internet saying they want nothing to do with it.
The Western press, meanwhile, has speculated that the following groups are considering joining the peace initiative: the 1920 Revolution Brigades, Muhammad's Army (Jaysh Muhammad), Heroes of Iraq (Abtal Al-Iraq), 9 Nisan (April) Group, the Brigades of the General Command of the Armed Forces, and the Al-Fatihin Brigades.
However, the plan seems to have done little to halt Al-Qaeda’s
operations in Iraq. Its leader, Osama Bin Laden, is reported to have made a recent statement warning that Shi’ite areas would not be safe from retaliation if attacks on Sunni cities continue.
Hiltermann adds the plan will not deter other terrorists. “It would encourage them [Al-Qaeda] to step up attacks, if anything, in order to scuttle the whole thing.”
Insurgent groups are also calling for the immediate withdrawal of foreign troops as part of the plan. One insurgent belonging to the Muhammad Army group says the reconciliation plan will never bring peace to Iraq as long as foreign troops were there.
“Nothing has been done so far about the troops withdrawing,” he says, preferring to be unnamed. “And the exclusion of many fighter groups from the plan and the prime minister’s words attacking them will just further provoke the insurgency in Iraq.”
The ICG analyst says the timing of any troop withdrawal is
crucial: “If they pull out now, there will be civil war,” Hiltermann says. “If they pull out once well trained, well equipped and fully integrated security forces have come into being in sufficient numbers, then that will do much to reduce lawlessness. But you need a viable political process to deal with the insurgency. A military solution is not a solution that will work.”
Beleaguered
The Arab League, which is playing a role in the reconciliation
process, remains hopeful. “We have called on political parties across the spectrum in Iraq, as well as religious leaders, to give the plan a chance to work in order to diffuse the tensions in Iraq,” says Alaa Roushdy, the official spokesman for the secretary general of the Arab League.
“The challenges are many, but we are hoping that the different parties give the new plan a chance. I have read new reports that the Prime Minister is willing to talk to the different factions and evolve his plan by taking the points of view of the others into consideration.”
A preparatory reconciliation meeting was held in Cairo in November 2005 under the auspices of the Arab League. This meeting, according to Roushdy, set the foundations of a resolution of sorts until the bombing of the Shi’ite shrine in Samara in February, which re-kindled the fire.
“We will have another conference in mid-July of this year,” continues Roushdy. “All of our efforts are in conjunction with the Prime Minister’s new plan. We are working with vigour to get all the Iraqi parties together and to find common ground.”
The speaker of the Iraqi parliament, Mahmood al-Mashhadani, was reported to have said this week that it would be a “calamity” if the upcoming conference fails to reach objectives.
SZ/AS/AD
[ENDS]
This material comes to you via IRIN, a UN humanitarian information unit, but may not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations or its agencies. If you re-print, copy, archive or re-post this item, please retain this credit and disclaimer. Quotations or extracts should include attribution to the original sources. All materials copyright © UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs 2006
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