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Analysis: Bush, Blair and Iraq

Council on Foreign Relations

May 24, 2006
Prepared by: Michael Moran

During his weekly "Question Time" in parliament on Wednesday, Tony Blair was asked his opinion of claims that Iraq is now embroiled in civil war. "Does the Prime Minister agree, and where does that leave our promise not to leave Iraq until a stable democracy has been established?" That question, posed in various ways on both sides of the Atlantic, haunts both Blair and President Bush today. The two men, meeting Thursday, have plenty of other issues on their agenda (Times of London), including the standoff over Iran's nuclear program, disputes on global agricultural subsidies, and NATO's assumption of a greater combat role in Afghanistan (Globe and Mail) in July, led by a British general.

Yet, as CFR Senior Fellow Walter Russell Mead tells Bernard Gwertzman in an interview, the pressure on both leaders to announce some kind of timetable for withdrawal is building. Thus, the announcement the two will hold a televised, joint address on the war (ChiTrib) Thursday. For Bush, looming fall congressional elections and sagging poll numbers mean incessant pressure from his own party to glean a light at the end of the tunnel (FT). For Blair, who pledged to turn the reins over to his deputy, Gordon Brown, before the next election is due, the pressure is even more pronounced. Visiting Baghdad earlier this week, Blair's aides telegraphed Britain's intention to turn over Basra and its environs to the new Iraqi government "within a few months," according to the Times of London. Later, Iraq's new prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki, confirmed: "There is an agreement for the transfer of security under a timetable which starts in June when Iraqi forces will take control of the provinces of Samawa and Amara" (Times of London).

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.