Analysis: 'Civil War' Becomes the Question
Council on Foreign Relations
March 21, 2006
Prepared by: Michael Moran
Is Iraq engulfed in a civil war? The debate has been raging for months on op-ed pages; in the halls of power in Washington, Tehran, and Baghdad; in military war colleges; and in ordinary conversations around the world. On Tuesday, President Bush weighed in, saying he believed Iraqis had pulled back from the brink since the bombing of the Shiite Golden Mosque last month in Samarra. Asked if he agreed with former Iraqi President Ayad Allawi, a man once championed by the Bush administration who now says civil war is raging in his country, Bush said: "I do not. There are other voices coming out of Iraq, by the way, other than Mr. Allawi...This is a moment when the Iraqis had a chance to fall apart and they didn't. And that's a positive development."
With U.S. opinion polls showing disapproval of the war approaching the critical 70 percent barrier, the president, by his own admission, is on the stump trying to shore up American resolve on the war. His military planners, however, are making contingency plans in case the possibility of civil war becomes reality. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld outlined these plans to Congress earlier this month, when he said the United States would rely on Iraq's security forces (WashPost) to put down a civil war should one break out.
Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.
Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.
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