22 January 2005
Iraq Democracy Will Be Defined by Iraqi People
Ambassador Negroponte discusses upcoming election with BBC
Iraq will be a democracy "as defined by the Iraqi people themselves" U.S. Ambassador to Iraq John D. Negroponte said in a January 21 interview with the BBC, adding that the terrorists who are "blowing up the bombs...are not going to win."
Ambassador Negroponte made the remarks at the conclusion of a wide-ranging interview with the BBC's John Simpson which focused on the upcoming January 30 Iraqi elections to choose a 275 member National General Assembly.
Negroponte stressed that the U.S. is committed to "a free and fair election" in Iraq and that "we stand ready to work with whatever government emerges from this electoral process. I don't think one can say for certainty what that outcome will be," he added, noting that more than 100 different parties and individuals are competing for the assembly seats.
For the U.S. the "most important element" is the fact of the elections themselves: that they will take place and "that they represent a major step on Iraq's march to political freedom."
Regarding a possible Sunni Muslim boycott of the voting, Negroponte said "all the polling data and interviews we've done suggest that Iraqis eligible to vote by and large wish to do so." The first task of the coalition, he said, is to make conditions secure enough for the voting to take place.
The ambassador predicted "quite large turnouts" in the relatively secure northern and southern parts of the country. He said that the "more problematic" voting area will be the two predominantly Sunni provinces in the center.
Negroponte said that plans are being worked out throughout the country to ensure "a strong participation of the Iraqis." Still, he cautioned that voter turnout should not be the sole standard by "which the election is judged. It's going to be a major milestone in the political development of this country. Transitioning, as it were, from an appointed to an elected government."
If some "elements of Iraqi society" have not had "as much of an opportunity to participate as they might have liked," he said, "I think there will be opportunities in the future to redress that situation, either through participation in the presidency or in the government itself and in the future elections that will take place in this country."
He stressed that this election "is the beginning of a process" to be followed by a referendum on the constitution in October with elections "for definitive government" to take place by year's end.
Negroponte challenged a statement that the insurgency in Iraq is growing, pointing out "that the level of incidents is roughly at the same level" as when he arrived six months ago. That insurgency is driven, he said, by former Saddamists who want to stop the democratic process, feel threatened by it and who "will stop at nothing to try to prevent" the democratic transition from happening.
"I think the good news, the positive side of the story," he said, "is that there are so many courageous Iraqis who are prepared to help organize and see this election through, and you yourself have no doubt found out this represents a substantial logistical effort throughout this country, which is underway as we speak."
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Transcript of interview with U.S. Ambassador to Iraq John Negroponte by the BBC's John Simpson
January 21, 2005
JOHN SIMPSON: Ambassador, most people seem to be expecting--in Iraq at any rate -- most people seem to be expecting their government to come out of this election, which will have a clear majority for the Shia population. Could the United States live with that? Would it accept that, regard that as being a reasonable outcome?
JOHN NEGROPONTE: We will. We're committed to a free and fair election and we think that's the most important element and we stand ready to work with whatever government emerges from this electoral process. I don't think one can say for certainty what that outcome will be. After all there are more than a hundred different parties and individuals competing for seats in the national assembly. So I think we just have to wait and see the results before we come to judgments as to what the precise coloration of what the new national assembly will be.
JOHN SIMPSON: Obviously, you'd prefer if Iyad Allawi had won a decent majority and was able to carry on in (mumble)
JOHN NEGROPONTE: Well, for us, the important fact is the fact of the elections for this 275 person national assembly, which will have the role of drafting a constitution and selecting a new presidency. We are not backing any individual candidate for election to the assembly. Again, as I said, the most important element is the fact of the elections and that they represent a major step on Iraq's march towards political freedom.
JOHN SIMPSON: There's a great deal of effort on the coalition generally, isn't there, to support the Allawi candidacy? The Allawi's party and the British, for instance, have put a great deal of effort into trying to ensure he wins.
JOHN NEGROPONTE: The United States Government's assistance has been to NGOs such as the National Democratic Institute and the International Republican Institute. We of course have provided various types of support--general democracy support--but we have not provided assistance towards the election of any specific slate or candidate.
JOHN SIMPSON: How damaging will it be if there is a big Sunni boycott or if at any rate Sunnis don't vote, whether because they don't want to or because they feel threatened by...
JOHN NEGROPONTE: First let me say I think most Iraqis want to vote. All the polling data and interviews we've done suggest that Iraqis eligible to vote by and large wish to do so. And so, in our view, the first task of the Coalition is to help ensure the conditions of security that will allow as many Iraqis eligible to vote, to do so. I think that in the northern part of the country and in the southern part of the country there will be quite large turnouts. The more problematic area is in the center, particularly two predominantly Sunni provinces. But even there, efforts are being made to provide the utmost security possible to enable people to vote, and work arounds are being devised to optimize voting in those challenging provinces.
JOHN SIMPSON: I mean that hasn't got over to most (mumble) because when you talk to people they say they're scared to vote.
JOHN NEGROPONTE: Well, I think again we'll have to wait and see what the turnout will be. There's going to be a maximum effort to ensure the security of the elections on the part of the coalition, the Iraqi armed forces, and police. Security plans are being worked out throughout the country. I visited several locations where the planning is well underway so I think we can expect a strong participation of the Iraqis. And let me stress another point here, that it is not the fact of turnout alone that should be considered the standard of which this election is judged. It's going to be a major milestone in the political development of this country. Transitioning, as it were, from an appointed to an elected government...
JOHN SIMPSON: But if...
JOHN NEGROPONTE: and this is a major political development.
JOHN SIMPSON: But if the turnout is low that doesn't say very much either for the security situation.
JOHN NEGROPONTE: Well, I think that the fact that the elections take place is itself important. There will be good participation, I'm sure. And the fact that a new government emerges from this electoral process will in and of itself be important. If there are elements of Iraqi society that may not have had much of an opportunity to participate as they might have liked, I think there will be opportunities in the future to redress that situation, either through participation in the presidency or in the government itself and in the future elections that will take place in this country.
JOHN SIMPSON: Sometimes...
JOHN NEGROPONTE: This is the beginning of a process and there is after all both a referendum on the constitution that's going to take place in October and then elections for definitive government that will take place by the end of this year.
JOHN SIMPSON: Why do you think the insurgency is so big and is growing at such a pace?
JOHN NEGROPONTE: Well, I'm not sure that it is growing. I think the level of incidents that they are provoking is roughly at the same level it was when I first arrived here six months ago. I think what drives the insurgency are former regime elements, former Saddamists, who want to block the democratic process in this country and feel threatened by it, and they are a ruthless group of individuals who will stop at nothing to try to prevent this from happening. I think the good news, the positive side of the story, is that there are so many courageous Iraqis who are prepared to help organize and see this election through, and you yourself have no doubt found out this represents a substantial logistical effort throughout this country which is underway as we speak.
JD: The head of Iraqi intelligence has said that he thinks there are anywhere from 200,000 active insurgents in this country at the moment. That's more than the United States armed forces, isn't it?
JOHN NEGROPONTE: First of all, I'd be reluctant to place a number of the size of the insurgency. We follow the kinds of activities that they are able to carry out every day, the number of attacks, and if that figure were correct, then it is certain not reflected in the level of activity being carried out by the insurgents every day.
JOHN SIMPSON: But nonetheless, presumably and it's not in his interests to increase the numbers. I mean he thinks that it does show that there is a very strong element here isn't there. Can you actually defeat as strong a movement as that?
JOHN NEGROPONTE: Well, I think we've got to keep the situation in perspective. The northern part of the country is relatively secure. The southern part of the country is relatively secure. In 14 out of the 18 provinces of this country, there are less than 5 enemy attacks a day. So what we're talking about here is the concentration of these types of activities in a relatively limited area of the country. And even there, significant efforts are being made to bring that situation under control. I think the thrust of your question tends to imply that problems of much greater magnitude than I would accept. It's necessary to keep the issue in perspective.
JOHN SIMPSON: But it's part of the perspective to point out that the area which is being daily bombed, where peoples' lives are being wrecked on a daily basis, affects 40% of the population of this country. I mean this is not just one little area that one can sweep away and say it doesn't matter.
JOHN NEGROPONTE: By and large this country lives in conditions of relative peace and tranquility and where this security situation is of manageable proportions. A major effort is underway to reinstitute and reinstate and develop and train and equip Iraqi armed forces, the Iraqi police. These efforts require time but I think they're beginning to bear fruit and I think you will see during the course of this year a significant improvement in the capacity of the Iraqi armed forces and police forces to cope with these kinds of situations.
JOHN SIMPSON: Would you encourage, would approve if the new government whatever it is wanted to talk to the insurgents, wanted to do some kind of deal that would draw them into the political process?
JOHN NEGROPONTE: The sovereign government of Iraq is obviously free and welcome to do whatever it wishes with respect to the insurgency and those who oppose it. I would point out that some of those kinds of discussions have already taken place between the government leaders and those who oppose it. Prime Minister Allawi maintains a constant dialogue with the Sunni community. He's met with Sunni leaders from various provinces in Iraq. He's met them here in Baghdad. He's also met them on his trips abroad, such as his trips to Jordan, Lebanon and elsewhere. Yes, dialogue can very definitely be part of this situation, especially if it is supportive of the democratic process that we see unfolding before us.
JOHN SIMPSON: One of the demands that is being repeated again and again is for the United States to set a date for its withdrawal. Is that something that you simply could not live with?
JOHN NEGROPONTE: I think what's important is not to bind ourselves by some kind of time limit whereby others could then make their own calculations as to simply how long they would have to wait before they could resume their activities. I think it's more important to think in terms of enabling the Iraqi armed forces and police to progressively take on greater and greater responsibility for their own security. And that effort is underway through a major training and equipment program for the Iraqi security forces.
JOHN SIMPSON: And suppose the new government comes in as the result of these elections, simply turns round and says to you, thank you very much, but we would like you, the coalition powers, to leave the country.
JOHN NEGROPONTE: Security Council resolution 1546 speaks to that issue. It talks about the mandate of the multi-national force in Iraq. It says that that mandate will expire at the end of the political process described in the resolution, that is to say the elections that are scheduled to take place at the end of 2005; and it also says that that mandate could be ended sooner if requested by the Government of Iraq. So I think that the resolution speaks for itself. But it seems to me that the more important issue is the training and equipping and enabling of the Iraqi armed forces and police to take on a progressively greater share of the responsibility for providing security for this country and that process is well underway.
JOHN SIMPSON: Because that is essentially the exit strategy.
JOHN NEGROPONTE: Well, I think we need to talk about the success of the enabling and empowering the Iraqi armed forces and police to take on progressively greater responsibility for their security and that we will see where that situation leaves us.
JOHN SIMPSON: They haven't been very successful in Mosul, have they?
JOHN NEGROPONTE: But they've been successful in a number of other places. I would cite Fallujah. I would cite Najaf last August. There are about 8 or 9 Iraqi battalions in Fallujah at the moment. They were very successful in Najaf in August, whereas in April, they were not equally successful. They've been successful in Sadr City. I think as these forces acquire experience they become more professional; they become more capable of taking on a greater part of the burden.
JOHN SIMPSON: It's still a long way from being able to do it. Years.
JOHN NEGROPONTE: Well, the institution building definitely takes time. I think the important thing is to get the process started, get the right training, the right equipment, and the right leadership; and I think that as these ingredients are developed, you will see the situation progressively improve.
JOHN SIMPSON: We've been to see some of the most senior people in the army and the police. Extremely brave people who dare not even show their faces on camera because they know the threat to them. Every day, almost every day some senior military person, some senior policeman is murdered. That is a situation that is very difficult.
JD: Well, it is difficult. It is difficult and terrorism is definitely terrorism and the intimidation campaign is definitely taking its toll but this has not deterred brave Iraqis from volunteering for their armed forces, from volunteering to become part of their police forces; and I think that the kind of persistence they are showing that they will ultimately succeed in bringing this situation under control.
JOHN SIMPSON: How many civilians in Iraq do you think have died since....
JOHN NEGROPONTE: I really do not....
JOHN SIMPSON: but you get those figures don't you get those figures....
JOHN NEGROPONTE: I think you'd have to ask the Iraqi Ministry of Health for whatever estimates they might have. I do not have that information.
JOHN SIMPSON: It just seems, if I may say so, Ambassador, something strange to be here for the benefit of the Iraqis and not know how many have actually been killed in the process.
JOHN NEGROPONTE: Well, we certainly know, we keep track of the terrorist incidents that occur, the suicide bombings. I just don't have a precise estimate at my fingertips, but certainly there have been civilian casualties caused by terrorist acts carried out by former regime elements and by the al Qaeda, probably some of the most ghastly ones having been indiscriminate car bombings that take place in crowded places.
JOHN SIMPSON: But an awful lot of course also (didn't understand this word) by the Coalition military.
JOHN NEGROPONTE: I think we take the utmost care to avoid civilian casualties and again I would say my impression is the largest amount of civilian casualties definitely is the result of these indiscriminate car bombings. You yourself are aware of those as they occur in the Baghdad area and more frequently than not the largest number of victims of these acts of terror are innocent civilian bystanders.
JOHN SIMPSON: But if you don't enumerate the cases, how could you know how many people have been killed by one side or another?
JOHN NEGROPONTE: Well, I don't think I have anything further to say on that.
JOHN SIMPSON: I'd like now, if I may, to just turn to these other questions, now almost historical questions, but of your time at the UN and the whole business before that led up to the invasion. And I'm gonna have, I'm sorry, I apologize for these but they're specifically phrased so I'm going to have to just read them off the book. Was UN resolution 1441 deliberately crafted with the British delegation to ensure that there'd be no need for a second resolution?
JOHN NEGROPONTE: Yes. The discussion that we had always was that there was no question that if some violation, that if we judged there was some violation of resolution 1441, that this matter would be brought back to the Security Council. But in the discussions leading up to the adoption of the resolution, we made clear the argument that further action would not necessarily require another Security Council resolution. And our thinking was really that if resolution 1441 represented one final opportunity for Saddam Hussein to come into compliance with Security Council resolutions going yet for another resolution would be in effect giving him another last chance.
JOHN SIMPSON: When did the second draft, when the second draft resolution was tabled, how strongly did the United States work for that in order to get a positive vote?
JOHN NEGROPONTE: Well, you're testing my memory here ecause we're going back more than a year, a year and a half. It's almost two years now. But certainly there was a lot of effort that went into that vote, if memory serves about a 30-day period.
JOHN SIMPSON: I suppose the thrust of the question was did you really work for I mean did you really want it?
JOHN NEGROPONTE: Absolutely. I mean we worked very hard; we were lining up votes; and I believe at one point, we really felt that, I recall now that you ask, that we had 9 votes lined up and I think that it helped. In other words, sufficient enough votes for the resolution to carry. And I believe that may be one of the reasons that President Chirac decided to brandish, to threaten to veto such a resolution because I think he may have been concerned that the resolution would pass.
JOHN SIMPSON: So the only way to stop...
JOHN NEGROPONTE: Oh, a great deal of effort was put into lining up votes for the resolution.
JOHN SIMPSON: When did you decide that the second draft resolution was dead wasn't any longer worth......
JOHN NEGROPONTE: Well, clearly when Mr. Chirac said that he would veto such a resolution.
JOHN SIMPSON: And it was at that point that you realized....
JOHN NEGROPONTE: Well, don't hold me to the minute and the day, but as a general proposition, yes. Once France said they would veto such a resolution, then it made much less sense to pursue it.
JOHN SIMPSON: If the French hadn't done that, everything would be different. I mean the whole background to the.......
JOHN NEGROPONTE: You're asking me a hypothetical question. Leave that to the historians.
JOHN SIMPSON: But sometimes you must reflect on that sometimes. I mean that was one of the big...
JOHN NEGROPONTE: I would leave it to the historians. I think the important point going forward is that we would like to work with our partners on the Security Council and the international community on the stabilization and reconstruction of Iraq. NATO has come here now with a small training mission. We would welcome the involvement of countries such as Germany and France and others in reconstruction activities. There is definitely a place for those countries in the situation in Iraq going forward. So I think rather than looking back at the divisive debates of the winters of 2003, I'd prefer to look forward to the opportunities of cooperation with Europe and others on reconstruction of Iraq.
JOHN SIMPSON: And, I mean, is that also a possible way for the United States to shed some of the burden...
JOHN NEGROPONTE: Well, we don't, we're not looking to shed our burden. We feel we have an important responsibility here. We have an $18.4 billion reconstruction program; we have 140,000 troops in this country. This represents a very, very significant effort, but the reconstruction needs of Iraq are well beyond $18 billion. The United Nations estimate two years ago was that they were on the order of $60 billion because of the dilapidated infrastructure of the country, which was completely neglected by Saddam Hussein. So there's plenty of work to go around and we would welcome collaboration with other partners in assisting Iraq going forward.
JOHN SIMPSON: Is Iraq going to be a democracy?
JOHN NEGROPONTE: Iraq is going to be a democracy as defined by the Iraqi people themselves. And a major step towards that is going to be taken on the 30th of January.
JOHN SIMPSON: And the people that are blowing the bombs up, they're not going to win?
JOHN NEGROPONTE: No. They're not going to win. But they're obviously afraid of this election process, which is a historical development in the politics of this country.
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