Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=04/23/03

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=IRAQ / US POL

NUMBER=5-53707

BYLINE=JIM MALONE

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: The success of Operation Iraqi Freedom has boosted President Bush's prospects for re-election next year. But as National Correspondent Jim Malone reports, the nine Democrats vying to challenge the president in 2004 see the victory in Iraq as an opportunity to refocus the national debate on domestic issues.

TEXT: According to several public-opinion polls, the president is riding high in the wake of the military victory in Iraq. Several polls place his public approval rating at 70-percent or better.

And in his public speeches, Mr. Bush never fails to remind his audiences that he believes removing Saddam Hussein from power was in the interest of U-S national security:

/// BUSH ACT ///

Thanks to the courage and might of our military, the American people are more secure. Thanks to the courage and might of our military, the Iraqi people are now free (applause fades).

/// END ACT ///

University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato predicts that much of the president's re-election campaign in 2004 will be based on his success in the national security and foreign policy areas:

/// 1ST SABATO ACT ///

President Bush is not going to give up the national security card nor should he politically. It is the best card any incumbent president, especially a Republican incumbent president, could have. If he wins a second term in 2004, it is probably going to be because of the national security card.

/// END ACT ///

Nine Democrats have taken steps to run for president next year, though most of them cut back on campaigning during the war in Iraq.

Now that the war is over, the Democrats who want Mr. Bush's job are anxious to refocus the public's attention on domestic issues like the economy, health care and pension security.

Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt spoke on N-B-C's "Today" program:

/// GEPHARDT ACT ///

Everybody is proud of our young people (serving in Iraq) and the job they did there, but questions are coming back to domestic events. I was in Iowa and New Hampshire last week and most of the questions were about domestic issues.

/// END ACT ///

Stuart Rothenberg publishes an independent political newsletter in Washington:

/// 1ST ROTHENBERG ACT ///

I do not think the Democrats, as a party, fear this president at the moment. They respect what he did on foreign policy. Many of them, though not all, are giving him credit in that area. They just feel that he is fundamentally vulnerable in terms of taxes and priorities, the federal deficit and programs that he wants that he can't get enacted. So I think the Democrats see opportunity for the 2004 presidential race.

/// END ACT ///

The key challenge for the president now is carrying over his popularity from the foreign policy field into the domestic area, especially bolstering the weak U-S economy.

Once again, analyst Stuart Rothenberg:

/// 2ND ROTHENBERG ACT ///

I think that unfortunately for the White House, from their point of view, the public and the national media seem to be making a rather clear distinction between foreign policy events and successes and domestic circumstances. And so whether it is on Capitol Hill or it is in the nation's newspapers or on television, there is no sense that the president has momentum on the domestic agenda.

/// END ACT ///

Democrats want a rerun of the 1992 election in which the president's father, riding high in the polls after the Persian Gulf War, lost his bid for a second term because of a public perception that he was not doing enough to try and turn around the domestic economy.

But many political analysts say this Bush White House is determined to avoid a repeat of that scenario.

Again, University of Virginia expert Larry Sabato:

/// 2ND SABATO ACT ///

President Bush the senior did not use the political capital he gained from the Persian Gulf War to do something about a very weak (domestic) economy and as a result was defeated for re-election. Political capital is the opposite of economic capital. When money is in the bank, it makes interest, it grows over time. Political capital cannot be banked and it diminishes over time. I think that this (current) President Bush understands that. His father did not.

/// END ACT ///

Most analysts expect the president will increasingly shift his attention to domestic issues between now and the election, especially to the weak economy. But they also predict that the Bush campaign will never let the public forget the president's response to the September 11th attacks or his military campaign to liberate Iraq. (SIGNED)

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