18 April 2003
CSIS Panel Recommends Next Steps for Rebuilding Iraq
(Scholars deal with security, reconstruction strategy, oil issues) (800) By Paula Thomson Washington File Staff Writer Washington -- In the rebuilding of Iraq, the establishment of a constabulary security force, the convening of an international donors' conference, and the upgrading of Iraq's oil infrastructure were among several recommended projects suggested by a panel speaking at the Center for Strategic International Studies (CSIS) in Washington. CSIS analysts Phil Anderson, Rick Barton, and Robert Ebel led an hour-long discussion, which covered such topics as the transitional role of the military and coalition forces, challenges for reconstruction and humanitarian efforts, and prospects for Iraq's oil industry. Anderson, a 23-year Marine Corp veteran and CSIS scholar for international security issues, opened the discussion with recommendations for the future role of coalition forces in Iraq. Saying that Saddam Hussein's regime was no longer relevant, Anderson said he was beginning to see a shift in Iraqi public opinion towards a willingness to accept a short-term occupying force. Anderson said that foreign military support would be needed "for quite some time" to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian assistance and to ensure security during the reconstruction of Iraq. He estimated that a constabulary force would require between 100,000 and 200,000 troops, who would be drawn from both international coalition members and members of Iraq's military and police forces to carry out the policing tasks. Anderson rejected suggestions that the U.S. military would establish a permanent military presence in Iraq, saying that the presence would only be expeditionary. "The plan is to return Iraq to its people. The military is going to be used to facilitate this effort," he clarified. Rick Barton, co-director for Iraq's Post-Conflict Reconstruction project at CSIS, echoed Anderson's call for establishing security in Iraq. "The fact remains that the security situation throughout Iraq remains unpredictable. Public safety will be a precondition for reconstruction and humanitarian efforts to begin," Barton said. Barton said that stopping the looting and intimidation directed against certain groups would be first among the challenges of a constabulary force in Iraq. Citing the mixed results of the coalition's use of the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan, Barton cautioned that it would be important for coalition forces to find reliable partners among the Iraqi population to help secure public safety. With regard to rebuilding Iraq, Barton said an international donor's conference should be convened to raise money and promote the international community's involvement in rebuilding Iraq. He urged the United Nations to examine Iraq's past war-related debts and find ways to compensate and relieve Iraq of those costs so it could channel its money towards reconstruction. Barton said major reconstruction projects should not be the first priority in the rehabilitation of Iraq, but suggested that the focus be on local projects with local ownership, which he said would provide a "jump start" for the economy. Unlike Afghanistan, where the entire civilian infrastructure had to be rebuilt, Barton said Iraq's infrastructure is still intact. He added that reconstruction needs to start in the cities. "The starting point for reconstruction needs to be the cities," Barton said, where 70 percent of Iraq's population resides. He suggested that reconstruction teams try out different models of governing on the local level, where chances are greatest for the involvement of the Iraqi people. Barton recommended that salaries be provided to Iraq's teachers, medical workers, police, and other civilian groups. Barton also urged U.S. forces to become more involved in Iraq's community development projects, citing the British military's success in this area, which has resulted, he said, in their developing a more positive relationship with the Iraqi public. Robert Ebel, director of the CSIS Energy Program, discussed prospects for Iraq's oil industry. His overall assessment of Iraq's oil infrastructure was positive, but the condition of its oil production facilities raises concern. He said that outside expertise and technology, along with foreign capital, would be needed to upgrade the facilities. Although Ebel said that oil exports could resume in three months, he predicted that it would take at least five years to fully rehabilitate Iraq's oil industry, estimating that by 2010, Iraq could produce four to four and a half million barrels of oil per day. Ebel also noted Iraq's potential for exploiting its natural gas reserves, which he said could complement Iraq's oil exports. One of the challenges of rebuilding Iraq's oil industry will be determining who has title to the oil, Ebel said. He called for establishing a mechanism for reviewing contracts signed under Saddam Hussein's regime and determining whether the next government should honor those contracts. He also raised the issue of nationalism in association with Iraq's oil industry, warning that opposition to privatization efforts could be another significant challenge. (The Washington File is a product of the Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)
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