Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=04/18/03

TYPE=SPECIAL REPORT

TITLE=NEW IRAQ AND ITS NEIGHBORS

NUMBER=9-24

BYLINE=WILLIAM CHIEN

DATELINE=KUWAIT CITY

INTERVIEW: PROFESSOR KHURAIBET (POLITICAL SCIENCE, KUWAIT UNIVERSITY); DR. XU JINGCHUN (BAGHDAD INSTITUTE OF INTERNATINOAL POLITICS)

INTRO: The war with Iraq changes the strategic layout in the Middle East. VOA's William Chien asked two experts to analyze this change.

TEXT: In the wake of the war, one of the more worrisome relationships is that between post-war Iraq and Syria. Syria had a closer relationship with Saddam Hussein's regime than any other regional government. The Ba'ath party ruled both countries and continues to hold sway in Syria. Before the war, the two countries had close military, governmental, and economic ties. Of special note is Iraq and Syria's collaboration in military research. Because of this, media in the Middle East believe the fall of Saddam is unsettling to Damascus. Dr. Xu Jianchun of the Baghdad Institute of International Politics expects U.S. diplomacy to succeed with Syria:

//XU ACT//

The U.S. has indicated that it wants to hold peace talks, to visit Syria. To work towards reconciliation. I feel that U-S' diplomacy is brilliant. The situation in Syria will not become very tense.

// END ACT///

Turning to Iran, Dr. Xu says that the question there is very complicated. Iraq's largest resistance group is composed of Shiite Muslims. Iran has great influence with them. He supposes that Iran supports the recent Shiite boycott of opposition group meetings. The question of how to treat the Shiites is going to be one of the most crucial issues for U-S policy in reconstructing Iraq. Properly dealing with the relationship between the Iraqi and Iranian governments will also be a very sensitive challenge.

Xu says Egypt is another hurdle.

// XU ACT #2 //

It appears as if all domestic religious leaders in Egypt disagree with their current regime. I saw the head of the Egyptian Institute of Religion openly criticize Mubarak. This is unprecedented. So one outcome of the crisis in Iraq is that leaders in neighboring Arab countries have received immense pressure to distance themselves from the U.S. government in order to maintain their political power.

///ACT END///

Middle Eastern media also indicate that Israel has received the greatest number of advantages from this war. Tel-Aviv is very happy to see the disintegration of Saddam's regime. However, Israel has wisely stayed low-key, in order to avoid angering Arabs.

Professor Khuraibet of the Political Science Department of Kuwait University wants the U-S to act quickly to push Israel to change some of its policies:

// KHURAIBET ACT // (SOUND IS OF POOR QUALITY)

"If Sharon stays in power, I do not believe that the conflict in Palestine will improve. The peace process will not have any major breakthroughs.. I hope that the U-S will be able to apply more pressure."

/// ACT END ///

Mr. Khuraibet believes Iraq's neighbors will gain from the defeat of Iraq. He does not think that the U-S will target Syria or Iran in the wake of its victory in Iraq. However, the U-S may use the war to bring pressure on these two countries to bring about change in the status quo.

Both professors believe the toppling of the authoritarian regime in Iraq will bring the Middle East a step closer to democracy. (Signed)

NEB/PT