Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=4/18/03

TYPE=SPECIAL REPORT

TITLE=IRAQ / MIDEAST POL

NUMBER=9-23

BYLINE=WILLIAM CHIEN

DATELINE=KUWAIT

INTRO: Preparations are underway for the Iraqi people to determine how their new government will be organized. VOA's William Chien asks local experts if they think Iraq will turn into a model for neighboring countries.

TEXT: In the wake of the fall of Saddam Hussein, experts in the Middle East are speculating on the future of democracy in the region.

An article in Saudi Arabia's national newspaper theorizes that the majority of the populace does not view the U.S. as the aggressor because there were not large-scale, anti-American demonstrations in the Middle East after the coalition forces took Baghdad. The article concludes that, based on the assumption that the U.S. is not yet seen as the bad guy, most people in the Middle East will accept democracy in Iraq as long as the coalition forces quickly establish peace and order.

Professor Shafiq Ghabra is president of American University in Kuwait; he is undecided about the prospect of democracy in Iraq.

///GHABRA ACT///

It is hard to say, the word western style or eastern style. Japanese style of democracy eastern or western? Is Japan eastern or western? I don't believe now that there is a western style or eastern style of democracy. Democracy is democracy. Eastern Europe, Asia, Latin America. Why not in Iraq? All this suffering after the agonies of war and oppression, why not have a Prime Minister that change by ballots and votes rather than by bullets and fire? You change regime, you change governments by ballots, by vote, not by the fire of tanks.

///END ACT///

Another scholar, schooled in the West, comments that the war in Iraq is a watershed moment in the history of the Arab world. He explains that after the First World War when the fall of the Turkish Ottoman Empire meant liberation for Arabs, philosophers in Arabic countries began to embrace independent thinking and Arab people even began wearing Western clothing. This changed after the Second World War. After many wars with Israel, Arabs abandoned their Western clothing and turned toward traditional schools of thought and ways of dressing. He believes that if the U.S. succeeds in establishing democracy in Iraq, young Middle Eastern people will be wearing T-shirts and singing American pop songs. If the U.S. does not succeed, he worries that Arabs might again turn to traditional systems.

A Syrian political scholar states that the history and geographical environment of Arab people would not suggest they would be likely candidates for Western democracy. He states that Arab people are distributed over a vast area and have many branches of thought. In addition, he adds that Arab people have experienced a long history of violence and dictatorship. All of these factors make them distrust democracy.

What factors are needed to help Iraq's transition to democracy? Professor Ghabra warns that the U.S. must be extremely careful to both protect Iraq while not letting it invade other countries.

/// ACT PROFESSOR GHABRA ///

Well it needs to be protected because there will be no Iraqi army able to defend Iraq. At the same time there is an open space for Syrians., whoever, to meddling in the internal politics of Iraq. We still have Lebanon and the past when a civil war took place for almost 16 years and almost every Arab country has a way in playing in Lebanese politics and Lebanese lost control totally of their lives of their politics and the civil war continues and even if the Lebanese wanted to stop it.there were always forces in the region that could ignite a fire and you don't want that in Iraq and this is why the US needs to play a role that will protect Iraq from such a quagmire, because I do believe that any will hoping that the US will be bogged down in Iraq in a quagmire that will eat up this entire change of regime and model approach to Iraq.

/// ACT END ///

According to Professor Ghabra, Iraq has great amount of potential.

/// ACT GHABRA ///

In the past the Iraqi Republican Guard did two things..in the region. It scared the region. The time is coming now, telling us that all this investment in weaponry is a mirage.it can all be destroyed in 3-4 weeks. It doesn't mean a lot. If all this investment went into education, development, modernizing the country the Iraqis would be in such a better position. They would be leaders abroad. So, back to reconsidering from militarism into building for peace this is the.building for peace will make Iraq a better Iraq. It has so much foundation for being a strong countryits people, its culture, its diversity. Its specific location neighboring countries and its worth.

/// ACT END ///

Saddam's rule is over. The opposition is regrouping. The U.S. and Britain are hoping democracy will take hold quickly. The world has little choice but to wait and see what happens.