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Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

Washington File

10 April 2003

U.S. Faces Immense Challenges in Iraq, Scholars Say

(Brookings seminar on conduct of war, establishing peace in Iraq)
(630)
By Anthony Kujawa
Washington File Staff Writer
Washington -- U.S. scholars assessing coalition military strategy in
the war against Iraq's Saddam Hussein and the challenges of rebuilding
a post-war Iraq said the United States must first establish security
and meet the humanitarian needs of the Iraqi people.
Speaking at Brookings Institution seminar in Washington April 10, the
scholars concurred that the rebuilding of Iraq is an immense task that
will require the cooperation and long-term commitment of the
international community in order to foster an enduring Iraqi
democracy.
Assessing Iraq's military strategy, Kenneth Pollack of Brookings said
that two important factors explain the rapid fall of Saddam Hussein's
regime: 1) the speed and overwhelming power of coalition forces, and
2) the people of Iraq were not willing to fight for Hussein's regime.
The former Iran-Iraq military analyst for the U.S. Central
Intelligence Agency speculated that Saddam Hussein felt the line of
Republican Guard divisions he formed from Karbala to Al Kut would slow
coalition forces longer than was the case. Saddam Hussein probably
felt he would have time to form a second line of defenses on the
outskirts of Baghdad, said Pollack.
"I think Saddam was extraordinarily over-confident about his ability
to preclude the war altogether," added Pollack, who speculated that
this might explain the unpreparedness and slow mobilization of
Baghdad's defenses. As Republican Guard units were forced to retreat
to Baghdad, said Pollack, they were highly disorganized and damaged by
U.S. air and ground attacks and this contributed to the rapid collapse
of Baghdad.
Yet Pollack stressed that the coalition, "has not yet liberated all of
Iraqi territory," and that battle ahead, particularly in Hussein's
hometown of Tikrit could become a "very messy fight."
Assessing U.S. military strategy in the war in Iraq, Michael O'Hanlon,
also of Brookings, said that the special operations forces used early
in the war and the innovative urban combat tactics used toward the end
were particularly effective.
O'Hanlon explained: "A year ago the military wanted to go in big and
strong and conventional, Rumsfeld wanted to go in small and creative
and innovative, and each side dropped part of its idea and kept the
good part. The system really worked because Rumsfeld's ideas for
innovation and Special Operations were juxtaposed with the military's
preference for a big force."
James Dobbins, director of the International Security and Defense
Policy Center at RAND, discussed the transition from combat operations
to reconstruction, outlining many of the challenges the Bush
administration will face in establishing security and meeting the
humanitarian needs of the Iraqi people.
Coalition forces must first reimpose order, prevent retributive
violence and maintain Iraq's territorial integrity, Dobbins said, and
he warned: "It's worth remembering that we went into Kosovo to protect
the Albanians from the Serbs and then spent the next three years
protecting the Serbs from the Albanians. It's quite likely that we
will be faced with similar tasks in Iraq."
Examining, historic parallels in nation-building, Dobbins concluded,
"It's only where we stayed longer, made a longer-term commitment that
we had a lasting effect."
Dobbins warned of a persistent tension which will run through U.S.
politics "between getting it done quickly and getting out quickly ...
or staying long enough so that we've had a lasting, transformative
effect on Iraqi society."
Concluding his remarks Dobbins said that it has never been in doubt
that the U.S. could win the war, but that "winning the peace is less
certain. And winning the peace on our own is even less certain."
A complete transcript of the panel's discussion may be viewed in PDF
format at http://www.brook.edu/dybdocroot/comm/events/20030410.pdf
(The Washington File is a product of the Office of International
Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site:
http://usinfo.state.gov)



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